Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
UK Retail Sales for March decreased 1.4% monthly and increased 0.9% annualized. Economists predicted a drop of 0.3% and a rise of 2.8%. Forex traders can compare this to UK Retail Sales for February, which contracted 0.5% monthly and expanded 7.2% annualized. UK Core Retail Sales for March decreased 1.1% monthly and 0.6% annualized. Economists predicted a drop of 0.4% and an increase of 0.7%. Forex traders can compare this to UK Core Retail Sales for February, which contracted 0.9% monthly and rose 4.7% annualized.
The UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI for April is predicted at 59.0, the UK Markit/CIPS Services PMI at 60.0, and the UK Markit/CIPS Composite PMI at 59.7. Forex traders can compare this to the UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI for March, reported at 55.2, the UK Markit/CIPS Services PMI at 62.6, and the UK Markit/CIPS Composite PMI at 60.9.
UK GfK Consumer Confidence for April is predicted at -33. Forex traders can compare this to UK GfK Consumer Confidence for March, reported at -31. Traders should watch out for consumer confidence data, as it continues to decrease, while disposal income drops amid rising inflation. Many consumers rely on credit card debt to fund spending, but with the slowly rising interest rate environment, consumer spending is likely to moderate, sending ripple effects throughout economic indicators.
The Preliminary US Markit Manufacturing PMI for April is predicted at 58.2, the Preliminary US Markit Services PMI at 58.0, and the Preliminary US Markit Composite PMI at 57.0. Forex traders can compare this to the US Markit Manufacturing PMI for March, reported at 58.8, the US Markit Services PMI at 58.0, and the US Markit Composite PMI at 57.7.
The forecast for the GBP/USD remains bullish as price action found support inside its horizontal support area, which includes the psychological support level of 1.3000. Downside pressures are fading, as confirmed by the sideways drifting Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen. The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud shows signs of a sideways trend, eliminating longer-term bearish pressures. Traders should monitor the CCI following a positive divergence formed in extreme oversold territory, leading to a breakout above -100. This technical indicator may retest -100, but if a sustained move higher pushes it above zero, price action could accelerate higher. Can bulls gather enough momentum to force the GBP/USD into its horizontal resistance area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the GBP/USD remain inside the or breakout above the 1.2970 to 1.3090 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.3030
- Take Profit Zone: 1.3300 – 1.3400
- Stop Loss Level: 1.2920
Should price action for the GBP/USD breakdown below 1.2970, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.2920
- Take Profit Zone: 1.2725 – 1.2800
- Stop Loss Level: 1.2970
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