GBPJPY Fundamental Analysis – August 9th 2019

Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for British Pound trades:

• UK GDP: The UK Preliminary GDP for June is predicted to increase by 0.1% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to the UK GDP for May which increased by 0.3% monthly. The UK Preliminary GDP for the second-quarter is predicted flat at 0.0% quarterly and to increase by 1.4% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the first-quarter GDP which increased by 0.5% quarterly and by 1.8% annualized. Private Consumption for the second-quarter is predicted to increase by 0.4% quarterly, Government Spending is predicted to increase by 0.3% quarterly and Gross Fixed Capital Formation is predicted to decrease by 0.4% quarterly. Forex traders can compare this to first-quarter Private Consumption which increased by 0.7% quarterly, to Government Spending which increased by 1.4% quarterly and to Gross Fixed Capital Formation which increased by 2.1% quarterly. UK Exports for the second-quarter are predicted to decrease by 2.1% quarterly and UK Imports are predicted to decrease by 9.2% quarterly. Forex traders can compare this to first-quarter UK Exports which were reported flat at 0.0% quarterly and to UK Imports which increased by 6.8% quarterly. UK Total Business Investment for the second-quarter is predicted to decrease by 0.5% quarterly and by 1.7% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to UK Total Business Investment for the first-quarter which increased by 0.4% quarterly and which decreased by 1.5% annualized.
• UK Industrial Production and UK Manufacturing Production: UK Industrial Production for June is predicted to decrease by 0.2% monthly and by 0.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to UK Industrial Production for May which increased by 1.4% monthly and by 0.9% annualized. UK Manufacturing Production for June is predicted to decrease by 0.2% monthly and by 1.1% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to UK Manufacturing Production for May which increased by 1.4% monthly and which was reported flat at 0.0% annualized.
• UK Construction Output Seasonally Adjusted: UK Construction Output Seasonally Adjusted for June is predicted to decrease by 0.4% monthly and increased by 0.2% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to UK Construction Output Seasonally Adjusted for May which increased by 0.6% monthly and by 1.7% annualized.
• UK Index of Services: The UK Index of Services for June is predicted to increase by 0.1% monthly and by 0.2% for the three-month-over-three-month period ending in June. Forex traders can compare this to the UK Index of Services for May which was reported flat at 0.0% monthly and which increased by 0.3% for the three-month-over-three-month period ending in May.
• UK Trade Balance: The UK Visible Trade Balance for June is predicted at -£11.800B. Forex traders can compare this to the UK Visible Trade Balance for May which was reported at -£11.524B. The UK Trade Balance Non EU for June is predicted at -£5.000B. Forex traders can compare this to the UK Trade Balance Non EU for May which was reported at -£4.905B. The UK Total Trade Balance for June is predicted at -£2.600B. Forex traders can compare this to the UK Total Trade Balance for May which was reported at -£2.324B.

Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Japanese Yen trades:

• Japanese Money Stock M2+CD and Japanese Money Stock M3: Japanese Money Stock M2+CD for July increased by 2.4% annualized and Japanese Money Stock M3 increased by 2.0% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 2.3% and of 2.0%. Forex traders can compare this to Japanese Money Stock M2+CD for June which increased by 2.3% annualized and to Japanese Money Stock M3 which increased by 2.0% annualized.
• Japanese GDP: The Preliminary Japanese GDP for the second-quarter increased by 0.4% quarterly and by 1.8% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 0.1% quarterly and of 0.5% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Japanese GDP for the first-quarter which increased by 0.7% quarterly and by 2.8% annualized. The Preliminary Nominal GDP for the second-quarter increased by 0.4% quarterly. Economists predicted an increase of 0.1% quarterly. Forex traders can compare this to the Nominal GDP for the first-quarter which increased by 1.0% quarterly. The Preliminary GDP Deflator for the second-quarter increased by 0.4% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 0.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Preliminary GDP Deflator for the first-quarter which increased by 0.1% annualized. Preliminary Private Consumption for the second-quarter decreased by 0.6% quarterly and Preliminary Business Spending increased by 1.5% quarterly. Economists predicted an increase of 0.7% and of 1.8%. Forex traders can compare this to Private Consumption for the first-quarter which increased by 0.1% quarterly and to Business Spending for the first-quarter which increased by 0.4% quarterly.

Should price action for the GBPJPY remain inside the or breakout above the 128.100 to 129.300 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:

• Timeframe: D1
• Recommendation: Long Position
• Entry Level: Long Position @ 128.650
• Take Profit Zone: 143.800 – 144.800
• Stop Loss Level: 127.800

Should price action for the GBPJPY breakdown below 128.100 the following trade set-up is recommended:

• Timeframe: D1
• Recommendation: Short Position
• Entry Level: Short Position @ 127.650
• Take Profit Zone: 125.450 – 126.100
• Stop Loss Level: 128.100

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