GBPCAD Fundamental Analysis – March 20th 2015

Here is the key factor to keep in mind today for British Pound trades:

UK Public Sector Net Borrowing: The UK government borrowed slightly less money than economists expected for February. Public sector net borrowing was reported at £6.2 billion for February; expectations called for an increase of £7.7 billion. Excluding banking public sector net borrowing was reported at £6.9 billion which can be compared to estimates for borrowing at £8.4 billion. The central government borrowed £3.5 billion. The data was strong enough to power the British Pound ahead after the release of this report.

Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Canadian Dollar trades:

Canadian CPI: Economists expect the Canadian CPI to increase by 0.6% in February monthly and by 1.0% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to January’s increase of 0.2% monthly and 1.0% annualized. The core CPI is expected to increase by 0.8% in February monthly and by 2.1% annualized. This should be compared to January’s core CPI which showed a contraction of 0.2% monthly and an annualized increase of 2.2%.
Canadian Retail Sales: Retail sales in Canada are expected to contract by 0.8% in January month-over-month which would add to the 2.0% plunge reported in December. A consumer which does not spend will translate into a GDP figure which will point towards economic problems and the Canadian Dollar may weaken further if retail sales decline by more than 1.0%. Forex traders should be cautious before the release of this report.

Should price action for the GBPCAD remain inside the 1.8750 to 1.8850 zone or breakout above it the following trade set-up is recommended:

Should price action for the GBPCAD breakdown below 1.8750 the following trade set-up is recommended:

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