Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
The Australian Trade Balance for January came in at A$11,688M. Economists predicted a figure of A$12.500M. Forex traders can compare this to the Australian Trade Balance for December, reported at A$12,237M. Exports for January increased by 1.0% monthly, and imports surged by 5.0%. Forex traders can compare this to exports for December, which dropped by 1.0%, and imports, which rose by 1.0%.
Australian Retail Sales for January rose 1.9% monthly. Economists predicted an increase of 1.9% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Australian Retail Sales for December, which plunged 4.0% monthly.
The Reserve Bank of Australia increased interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.60%. Economists predicted a rise of 25 basis points from 3.35%. Forex traders can compare this to the previous Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision, where it hiked rates by 25 basis points. It represents the 10th consecutive tightening of monetary policy, where the Australian central bank increased interest rates by 3.50% from an all-time low of 0.10% one year ago.
The Chinese Trade Balance for January came in at $116.88B. Economists predicted a figure of $81.80B. Forex traders can compare this to the Chinese Trade Balance for December, reported at $78.01B. Exports for January decreased by 6.8% annualized, and Imports plunged by 10.2% annualized. Economists predicted a drop of 9.4% and 5.5%. Forex traders can compare this to Exports for December, which dropped by 9.9% annualized, and Imports by 7.5% annualized.
UK BRC Retail Sales for February increased by 4.9% annualized. Economists predicted a rise of 4.8% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to UK BRC Retail Sales for January, which rose by 3.9% annualized.
The UK Halifax House Price Index for February is predicted to decrease by 0.3% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to the UK Halifax House Price Index for January, which was flat at 0.0% monthly.
The forecast for the GBP/AUD turned bearish in the short term after this currency pair reached its horizontal resistance area following a breakout above its narrowing Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud. The flat Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen confirm the lack of upside pressures. Traders should also monitor the CCI after it recorded a higher high in extreme overbought territory followed by a breakdown. This technical indicator may advance to a lower high, which could form a negative divergence, and a renewed breakdown would provide the final sell signal. Can bears increase downside pressure and force the GBP/AUD into a correction until it can challenge its horizontal support area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the GBP/AUD remain inside the or breakdown below the 1.7920 to 1.8030 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.7950
- Take Profit Zone: : 1.7485 – 1.7585
- Stop Loss Level:1.8080
Should price action for the GBP/AUD breakout above 1.8030, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.7430
- Take Profit Zone: 1.8200 – 1.8275
- Stop Loss Level: 1.8030
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