GBPAUD Fundamental Analysis – February 18th 2015

Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for British Pound trades:

Change in Jobless Claims: Economists expect jobless claims to decrease by 25,000 in January. Should expectations be confirmed this would follow a decrease of 29,700 reported in December. The claimant count rate is expected to decrease to 2.5% from December’s 2.6%.
Bank of England Minutes: Minutes released from the last meeting of the Bank of England could assist a higher British Pound today after Governor Carney stated that the Bank expects to witness an increase in inflation towards the end of 2015.
Employment Change: Economists expect the addition of 50,000 jobs in December, three-month-over-three-month period annualized, which would be an increase of 13,000 over the 37,000 reported in November. The ILO unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 5.8%. Average weekly earnings are expected to rise by 1.7% which would match the increase reported in November. Excluding bonuses earnings are expected to rise by 1.8%, also matching the data from November.

Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Australian Dollar trades:

Conference Board Leading Index: The Conference Board Leading Index rose 0.4% in December. Forex traders can compare this to the 0.1% increase reported in November. The Australian Dollar remained near its session highs after the release of the report.
Westpac Leading Index: The Westpac Leading Index rose 0.1% in January which also points towards an improvement in the Australian economy. December’s report remained unrevised at 0.0%.

Should price action for the GBPAUD remain inside the, or breakout above the 1.9625 to 1.9675 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:

Should price action for the GBPAUD breakdown below 1.9625 the following trade set-up is recommended:

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