The US and China confirmed that trade talks will resume in October, but will they actually yield positive results? Neither side has show willingness to cave to demands of the other and in the meantime the global economy continues to slow down. German factory order released this morning showed a much steeper contraction than economists expected. This partially negated the positive mood following yesterday’s upside surprise in Services and Composite PMI data out of the Eurozone. The EURUSD paused it bounce from yesterday and remains just below a minor resistance level. Are bulls able to force a breakout or will bears pressure for more downside? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and take the profitable side of this trade.
Forex traders will get a range of US economic data and all eyes will be on the key ISM Non-Manufacturing Index. On Tuesday the ISM Manufacturing Index posted it first reading below 50, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector, in over three years. What should forex traders expect from the service sector? The ADP report will give the first look into private sector job creation ahead of tomorrow’s NFP report for August and factory orders will also be in focus. How will this impact the EURUSD? Today’s fundamental analysis will take a look into price action covering both sides of the trade.
Here is the key factor to keep in mind today for Euro trades:
- German Factory Orders: German Factory Orders for July decreased by 2.7% monthly and by 5.6% annualized. Economists predicted a decrease of 1.4% monthly and of 2.4% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to German Factory Orders for June which increased by 2.7% monthly and which decreased by 3.5% annualized.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for US Dollar trades:
- US ADP Employment Change: The US ADP Employment Change for August is predicted at 148K. Forex traders can compare this to the US ADP Employment Change for July which was reported at 156K.
- US Non-Farm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs: Final US Non-Farm Productivity for the second-quarter is predicted to increase by 2.2% quarterly and Unit Labor Costs are predicted to increase by 2.4% quarterly. Forex traders can compare this to previous US Non-Farm Productivity for the second-quarter which increased by 2.3% quarterly and to Unit Labor Costs which increased by 2.4% quarterly.
- US Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims: US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of August 31st are predicted at 215K and US Continuing Claims for the week of August 24th are predicted at 1,688K. Forex traders can compare this to US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of August 24th which were reported at 215K and to US Continuing Claims for the week of August 17th which were reported at 1,698K.
- US Markit Services PMI and Markit Composite PMI: The US Final Markit Services PMI for August is predicted at 50.9 and the US Final Markit Composite PMI is predicted at 50.9. Forex traders can compare this to the previous US Markit Services PMI for August which was reported at 50.9 and to the previous US Markit Composite PMI which was reported at 50.9.
- US Factory Orders: US Factory Orders for July are predicted to increase by 1.0% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Factory Orders for June which increased by 0.6% monthly.
- US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for August is predicted at 54.0. Forex traders can compare this to the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for July which was reported at 53.7. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index for August is predicted at 53.3. Forex traders can compare this to the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index for July which was reported at 53.1.
Should price action for the EURUSD remain inside the or breakout above the 1.1000 to 1.1060 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.1030
- Take Profit Zone: 1.1165 – 1.1250
- Stop Loss Level: 1.0990
Should price action for the EURUSD breakdown below 1.1000 the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.0965
- Take Profit Zone: 1.0820 – 1.0840
- Stop Loss Level: 1.1000
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