German consumer confidence increased slightly but doesn’t lead to great confidence as consumers gear up for a holiday shopping spree. The Italian non-EU trade balance came in well above the previous month’s surplus and shows that while Italy may struggle inside the Eurozone, it performs well outside of it. The EURUSD remained well supported after the release of today’s light economic reports, how will price action be impacted following the release of US data? Today’s fundamental analysis will take a look at price action in both directions.
Forex traders will get a heavy dose of minor economic reports out of the US today. The trade deficit is expected to expand, but an improvement in the housing sector is anticipated. Together with a rise in consumer confidence and Black Friday ready to start the holiday shopping season in the US, the mood has grown increasingly more confident. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will slide into focus after yesterday’s Chicago and Dallas reports showed converging reports. How will the EURUSD react after the release of today’s data? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Euro trades:
- German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey: The German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for December was reported at 9.7. Economists predicted a figure of 9.6. Forex traders can compare this to the German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for November which was reported at 9.6.
- Italian Trade Balance Non-EU: The Italian Trade Balance Non-EU for October was reported at a €5.97B. Forex traders can compare this to Italian Trade Balance Non-EU for September which was reported at €1.53B.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for US Dollar trades:
- US Advanced Goods Trade Balance: The US Advanced Goods Trade Balance for October is predicted at -$71.0B. Forex traders can compare this to the US Advanced Goods Trade Balance for September which was reported at -$70.4B.
- US Wholesale Inventories: US Preliminary Wholesale Inventories for October are predicted to increase by 0.1% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Wholesale Inventories for September which decreased by 0.4% monthly.
- US House Price Index: The US House Price Index for September is predicted to increase by 0.3% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US House Price Index for August which increased by 0.2% monthly.
- US S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20: The US S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20 for September is predicted to increase by 0.30% monthly and by 3.30% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the US S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20 for August which decreased by 0.16% monthly and which increased by 3.17% annualized.
- US Consumer Confidence: US Consumer Confidence for November is predicted at 127.0. Forex traders can compare this to US Consumer Confidence for October which was reported at 125.9.
- US New Home Sales: US New Home Sales for October are predicted to increase by 1.0% monthly to 708K new homes. Forex traders can compare this to US New Home Sales for September which decreased by 0.7% monthly to 701K new homes.
- US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for November is predicted at 5. Forex traders can compare this to the US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for October which was reported at 8.
Should price action for the EURUSD remain inside the or breakout above the 1.0990 to 1.1030 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.1015
- Take Profit Zone: 1.1180 – 1.1250
- Stop Loss Level: 1.0960
Should price action for the EURUSD breakdown below 1.0990 the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.0960
- Take Profit Zone: 1.0820– 1.0880
- Stop Loss Level: 1.0990
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