Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
The German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for November is predicted at -41.9. Forex traders can compare this to the German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for October, reported at -42.5.
The Spanish Unemployment Rate for the third quarter is predicted at 13.00%. Forex traders can compare this to the Spanish Unemployment Rate for the second quarter, reported at 12.48%.
Italian Business Confidence for October is predicted at 100.0, and Italian Consumer Confidence at 93.8. Forex traders can compare this to Italian Business Confidence for September, reported at 101.3, and Italian Consumer Confidence, reported at 94.8.
The ECB is predicted to increase the Interest Rate by 75 basis points from 1.25% to 2.00%, and the Deposit Facility Rate from 0.75% to 1.50%. It would follow a similar increase announced during the September meeting, which surprised markets, as most expected a smaller 50 basis point hike.
US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of October 22nd are predicted at 220K, and US Continuing Claims for the week of October 15th are predicted at 1,388K. Forex traders can compare this to US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of October 15th, reported at 214K, and to US Continuing Claims for the week of October 8th, reported at 1,385K.
US Preliminary Durable Goods Orders for September are predicted to increase by 0.6% monthly, and Durables Excluding Transportation by 0.2% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Durable Goods Orders for August, which contracted 0.2% monthly, and Durables Excluding Transportation, which rose 0.3% monthly. Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft for September are predicted to rise 0.5% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft for August, which increased 1.4% monthly.
The Preliminary US GDP for the third quarter is predicted to increase by 2.4% quarterly. Forex traders can compare this to the second quarter GDP, which contracted 0.6% quarterly. The Preliminary GDP Price Index for the third quarter is predicted to rise 5.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the second quarter GDP Price Index, which surged 9.1% annualized. The Preliminary Core PCE for the third quarter is predicted to increase by 4.5% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the second quarter Core PCE, which increased by 4.7% annualized.
US Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending October 21st are predicted at 59B cubic feet. Traders can compare this to US Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending October 14th, reported at 111B cubic feet.
The forecast for the EUR/USD remains cautiously bullish after this currency pair moved above parity. Adding to upside pressures is the ascending Tenkan-sen, following its bullish crossover above the ascending Kijun-sen. The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud flatlined, but the Senkou Span A shows signs of upside movement. Traders should monitor the CCI in extreme overbought territory, as a breakdown may interrupt the massive advance before this technical indicator resumes its uptrend. Can bulls build on its rally and pressure price action into its horizontal resistance area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the EUR/USD remain inside the or breakout above the 0.9995 to 1.0115 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.0700
- Take Profit Zone: 1.0295 – 1.0370
- Stop Loss Level: 0.9950
Should price action for the EUR/USD breakdown below 0.9995, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 0.9950
- Take Profit Zone: 0.9850 – 0.9840
- Stop Loss Level: 0.9995
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