Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
The German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for June was reported at -7.0. Economists predicted a figure of -5.2. Forex traders can compare this to the German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for May, reported at -8.6. Italian Business Confidence for May is predicted at 106.4, and Italian Consumer Confidence is predicted at 104.4. Forex traders can compare this to Italian Business Confidence for April, reported at 105.4, and Italian Consumer Confidence reported at 102.3.
US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of May 22nd are predicted at 425K, and US Continuing Claims for the week of May 15th are predicted at 3,680K. Forex traders can compare this to US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of May 15th, which were reported at 444K, and to US Continuing Claims for the week of May 8th, which were reported at 3,751K.
US Preliminary Durable Goods Orders for April are predicted to increase by 0.7% monthly, and Durables Excluding Transportation are predicted to increase by 0.8% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Durable Goods Orders for March, which increased by 1.0% monthly, and to Durables Excluding Transportation, which increased by 2.3% monthly. Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft for April are predicted to increase by 1.0% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft for March, which increased by 1.0% monthly.
The Advanced US GDP for the first quarter is predicted to increase by 6.5% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the fourth-quarter GDP, which increased by 4.3% annualized. The GDP Price Index for the first quarter is predicted to increase by 4.1% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the fourth-quarter GDP Price Index, which increased by 1.9% annualized. The Core PCE for the first quarter is predicted to increase by 2.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the fourth-quarter Core PCE, which increased by 1.3% annualized. US Pending Home Sales for April are predicted to increase by 0.8% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Pending Home Sales for March, which increased by 1.9% monthly.
The forecast for the EUR/USD remains moderately bullish, driven by expected ongoing weakness in the US Dollar. A combination of debt, inflation, and rising rates will have a bigger negative impact in the US over the Eurozone, keeping bullish pressures intact. The Kijun-sen remains flat while the Tenkan-sen continues to advance, suggesting short-term volatility may remain. With the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud slowly ascending, the medium-term trend is also bullish. The CCI exited extreme overbought territory, but it maintains its bullish trend, favoring another push higher. Can bulls pressure the EUR/USD into its next horizontal resistance area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the EUR/USD remain inside the or breakout above the 1.2160 to 1.2260 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.2195
- Take Profit Zone: 1.2415 – 1.2475
- Stop Loss Level: 1.2125
Should price action for the EUR/USD breakdown below 1.2160, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.2125
- Take Profit Zone: 1.1985 – 1.2025
- Stop Loss Level: 1.2160
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