Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
The Final German CPI for April is predicted to increase by 0.4% monthly and 7.2% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the German CPI for March, which rose by 0.8% monthly and 7.4% annualized. The Final EU Harmonized German CPI for April is predicted to accelerate by 0.6% monthly and 7.6% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the EU Harmonized German CPI for March, which surged by 1.1% monthly and 7.8% annualized.
Italian Industrial Production for March is predicted to increase by 0.3% monthly and decrease by 1.7% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to Italian Industrial Production for February, which contracted 0.2% monthly and 2.3% annualized.
Spanish Consumer Confidence for April is predicted at 78.9. Forex traders can compare this to Spanish Consumer Confidence for March, reported at 67.4.
The US CPI for April is predicted to increase by 0.4% monthly and by 5.0% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the US CPI for March, which rose by 0.1% monthly and 5.0% annualized. The US Core CPI for April is predicted to expand by 0.4% monthly and by 5.5% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the US Core CPI for March, which rose by 0.4% monthly and 5.6% annualized.
US Crude Oil Inventories Change for the week ending May 5th are predicted at -0.917M. Traders can compare this to US Crude Oil Inventories Change for the week ending April 28th, reported at -1.280M. US Gasoline Inventories Change for the week ending May 5th are predicted at -1.23M, and US Distillate Stocks Change at 0.022M. Traders can compare this to US Gasoline Inventories Change for the week ending April 28th, reported at 1.743M, and US Distillate Stocks Change at -0.093M. Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates for the week ending May 5th are predicted to increase by 0.7% week-over-week. Forex traders can compare this to Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates for the week ending April 28th, which decreased by 0.6% week-over-week.
The US Monthly Budget Statement for April is predicted at $235.0B. Forex traders can compare this to the US Monthly Budget Statement for May, reported at -$378.0B.
The forecast for the EUR/USD remains cautiously bullish after this currency pair stabilized from its rejection by the lower band of its horizontal resistance area. Adding to upside pressures is the slowly upward-shifting Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is flat with a minor bearish bias, while the Kijun-sen is gradually ascending, suggesting volatility could increase as this currency pair advances. Traders should also monitor the CCI after it has dipped into extreme oversold territory. A breakout could trigger the next rally in price action. Will bulls overpower bears and regain control over the EUR/USD to pressure it into its horizontal resistance area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the EUR/USD remain inside the or breakout above the 1.0940 to 1.1015 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.0965
- Take Profit Zone: 1.1185 – 1.1280
- Stop Loss Level: 1.0900
Should price action for the EUR/USD breakdown below 1.0940, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.0900
- Take Profit Zone: 1.0770 – 1.0830
- Stop Loss Level: 1.0940
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