Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
The German IFO Business Climate Index for July is predicted at 88.0, the German IFO Current Assessment Index at 93.0, and the German IFO Expectations Index at 83.4. Forex traders can compare this to the German IFO Business Climate Index for June, reported at 88.5, the German IFO Current Assessment Index at 93.7, and the German IFO Expectations Index at 83.6.
The US House Price Index for May is predicted to increase by 0.2% monthly and 2.6% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the US House Price Index for April, which rose by 0.7% monthly and 3.1% annualized.
The US S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20 for May is predicted to rise by 1.20% monthly and contract by 2.20% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the US S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20 for April, which rose 1.70% monthly and decreased by 1.70% annualized.
US Consumer Confidence for July is predicted at 111.8. Forex traders can compare this to US Consumer Confidence for June, reported at 109.7.
The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for July is predicted at -10. Forex traders can compare this to the US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for June, reported at -7. The US Richmond Fed Services Index for July is predicted at 9. Forex traders can compare this to the US Richmond Fed Services Index for June, reported at -3.
Following more disappointing US economic data yesterday, traders await this week’s US Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The FOMC could either hike 25 basis points, as core inflation remains sticky or pause another month to assess the economic picture. The labor market continues to show resilience, but consumer confidence rises, and spending is flat once adjusted for inflation. Traders should expect more volatility and a weaker US Dollar ahead.
The forecast for the EUR/USD remains cautiously bullish after this currency pair retreated from its 2023 peak into a minor support level enforced by its sideways trending Kijun-sen. Adding to the upside momentum is the ascending Tenkan-sen and the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud, where the Senkou Span A and the Senkou Span B move higher. Traders should monitor the CCI following its double breakdown from extreme overbought territory and below zero. This technical indicator may graze extreme oversold territory, from where a reversal is likely as bullish pressure rises. Can bulls regain control over the EUR/USD and push price action into its horizontal resistance area and a fresh 2023 high? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the EUR/USD remain inside the or breakout above the 1.1025 to 1.1095 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.0785
- Take Profit Zone: 1.1200 – 1.1275
- Stop Loss Level: 1.0980
Should price action for the EUR/USD breakdown below 1.1025, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.0980
- Take Profit Zone: 1.0865 – 1.0900
- Stop Loss Level: 1.1025
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