Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
The Spanish Unemployment Change for December is predicted at -15.7K. Forex traders can compare this to the Spanish Unemployment Change for November, reported at -24.6K.
The German Unemployment Change for December is predicted at 20.0K, and the German Unemployment Rate at 5.9%. Forex traders can compare this to the German Unemployment Change for November, reported at 22.0K, and the German Unemployment Rate, reported at 5.9%.
The US ISM Manufacturing Index for December is predicted at 47.1, and ISM Prices Paid at 47.5. Forex traders can compare this to the US ISM Manufacturing Index for November, reported at 46.7, and ISM Prices Paid at 49.9.
US JOLTS Job Openings for November are predicted at 8.850M. Forex traders can compare this to US JOLTS Job Openings for December, reported at 8.733M.
Today’s trading session is light on economic data, with the Euro and the US Dollar in focus, which could see a repeat of yesterday’s economic releases. They have shown upside surprises for the Eurozone manufacturing sector and downside disappointments for the US. While both economies slow down, it appears the Eurozone is less worse than feared, and the US is worse than what market participants hoped.
This week is likely to remain a low-volume week with higher volatility, as most institutional traders do not return to the office until Monday. Despite enthusiasm over the past eight weeks about US economic and inflation prospects, traders must remain cautious and not jump on the hope bandwagon that the worst inflation crisis in over forty years was solved by a central bank that caused it.
The forecast for the EUR/USD is cautiously bullish after this currency pair corrected into its horizontal support area. Following a bullish crossover, the Tenkan-sen continues to move higher, but the Kijun-sen has flatlined, suggesting more volatility ahead. The ascending Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud provides ongoing upside momentum and should push price action gradually higher. Traders should also monitor the CCI following its double breakdown from extreme overbought territory and below zero. This technical indicator may challenge extreme oversold conditions, from where it can reverse with plenty of upside potential. A breakout above zero could accelerate a reversal rally and take this currency pair to multi-month highs. Can bulls maintain control over the EUR/USD and drive price action into its horizontal resistance area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the EUR/USD remain inside the or breakout above the 1.0900 to 1.0965 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.0945
- Take Profit Zone: 1.1150 – 1.1230
- Stop Loss Level: 1.0850
Should price action for the EUR/USD breakdown below 1.0900, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.0850
- Take Profit Zone: 1.0665 – 1.0740
- Stop Loss Level: 1.0900
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