Japanese data released during the Asian morning trading session showed an increase in household spending for July, but at a sharply reduced rate as compared to June. This may be partially attributed to the unexpected contraction in labor cash earnings. The Japanese Yen extended its weakness which pushed the EURJPY further to the upside following its most recent breakout. Positive sentiment in regards to US-China trade talks have also caused risk-on traders to rotate out of safe-haven assets such as the Japanese Yen. How much longer can this uptrend last? Today’s fundamental analysis will explore the upside potential as well as the downside risk in this currency pair.
Forex traders will get German industrial production data this morning as economists expect a small monthly increase following the previous month’s contraction. Later during the European trading session, final second-quarter GDP data out of the Eurozone is anticipated to have an impact on the Euro if revisions will be announced. Will the data suffice to keep the bulls in charge of the EURJPY and extend the gains or will the bears get encouraged to force a price action reversal? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and join our fast growing community of profitable forex traders.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Euro trades:
- German Industrial Production: German Industrial Production for July is predicted to increase by 0.3% monthly and to decrease by 1.1% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to German Industrial Production for June which decreased by 1.5% monthly and by 5.2% annualized.
- Italian Retail Sales: Italian Retail Sales for July are predicted to increase by 0.4% monthly and by 0.9% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to Italian Retail Sales for June which increased by 1.9% monthly and by 1.3% annualized.
- Eurozone GDP: Eurozone Final GDP for the second-quarter is predicted to increase by 0.2% quarterly and by 1.1% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the previous Eurozone GDP for the second-quarter which increased by 0.2% quarterly and by 1.1% annualized. Eurozone Household Consumption for the second-quarter is predicted to increase by 0.2% quarterly, Eurozone Government Expenditure is predicted to increase by 0.3% quarterly and Eurozone Gross Fixed Capital is predicted to increase by 0.2% quarterly. Forex traders can compare this to Eurozone Household Consumption for the first-quarter which increased by 0.5% quarterly, to Eurozone Government Expenditure which increased by 0.1% quarterly and to Eurozone Gross Fixed Capital which increased by 1.1% quarterly.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Japanese Yen trades:
- Japanese Household Spending: Japanese Household Spending for July increased by 0.8% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 0.8% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to Japanese Household Spending for June which increased by 2.7% annualized.
- Japanese Labor Cash Earnings and Japanese Real Cash Earnings: Japanese Labor Cash Earnings for July decreased by 0.3% annualized and Japanese Real Cash Earnings decreased by 0.9% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 0.1% and a decrease of 0.7%. Forex traders can compare this to Japanese Labor Cash Earnings for June which increased by 0.4% annualized and to Japanese Real Cash Earnings which decreased by 0.5% annualized.
- Japanese Official Reserve Assets: Japanese Official Reserve Assets for August were reported at $1,331.6B. Forex traders can compare this to Japanese Official Reserve Assets for July which were reported at $1,316.5B.
- Japanese Leading Index and Japanese Coincident Index: The Preliminary Japanese Leading Index for July is predicted at 93.2 and the Preliminary Japanese Coincident Index is predicted at 100.7. Forex traders can compare this to the Japanese Leading Index for June which was reported at 93.3 and to the Japanese Coincident Index which was reported at 100.4.
Should price action for the EURJPY remain inside the or breakout above the 117.900 to 118.600 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 118.150
- Take Profit Zone: 120.750 – 121.350
- Stop Loss Level: 117.400
Should price action for the EURJPY breakdown below 117.900 the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 117.400
- Take Profit Zone: 114.850 – 115.750
- Stop Loss Level: 117.900
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