Preliminary November PMI data out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone will be in focus today. Economists anticipate a minor improvement over October data, but PMI reports have been volatile. The final third-quarter German GDP is also expected to confirm Europe’s largest economy avoided a technical recession. With the EURJPY at resistance, how will price action react after the release of PMI data? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and grow your balance trade-by-trade.
Japanese inflation data confirmed the absence of inflationary pressures and the Bank of Japan has hinted that it may be time to adjust monetary policy. PMI data out of Japan showed a minor increase, but the manufacturing and composite PMI’s remained below 50.0 and indicate contraction. The EURJPY remained in a holding pattern, how will this be impacted after the release of Eurozone data? Today’s fundamental analysis will take a look at the upside potential as well as the downside risk in this currency pair.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Euro trades:
- German GDP: The Final German GDP for the third-quarter is predicted to increase by 0.1% quarterly and by 0.5% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the previous third-quarter German GDP report that increased by 0.1% quarterly and by 0.5% annualized. German Private Consumption for the third-quarter is predicted to increase by 0.4% quarterly. Forex traders can compare this to second-quarter German Private Consumption that increased by 0.1% quarterly. German Government Spending for the third-quarter is predicted to increase by 0.3% quarterly. Forex traders can compare this to second-quarter German Government Spending that increased by 0.5% quarterly. German Capital Investment for the third-quarter is predicted to decrease by 0.4% quarterly. Forex traders can compare this to second-quarter German Capital Investment that decreased by 0.1% quarterly.
- French Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, and Composite PMI: The Preliminary French Markit Manufacturing PMI for November is predicted at 50.9. Forex traders can compare this to the French Markit Manufacturing PMI for October that was reported at 50.7. The Preliminary French Markit Services PMI for November is predicted at 53.0. Forex traders can compare this to the French Markit Services PMI for October that was reported at 52.9. The Preliminary French Markit Composite PMI for November was reported at 52.8. Forex traders can compare this to the French Markit Composite PMI for October that was reported at 52.6.
- German Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, and Composite PMI: The Preliminary German Markit Manufacturing PMI for November is predicted at 42.9. Forex traders can compare this to the German Markit Manufacturing PMI for October that was reported at 42.1. The Preliminary German Markit Services PMI for November is predicted at 52.0. Forex traders can compare this to the German Markit Services PMI for October that was reported at 51.6. The Preliminary German Markit Composite PMI for November is predicted at 49.3. Forex traders can compare this to the German Markit Composite PMI for October that was reported at 48.9.
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, and Composite PMI: The Preliminary Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI for November is predicted at 46.4. Forex traders can compare this to the Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI for October that was reported at 45.9. The Preliminary Eurozone Markit Services PMI for November is predicted at 52.4. Forex traders can compare this to the Eurozone Markit Services PMI for October that was reported at 52.2. The Preliminary Eurozone Markit Composite PMI for November is predicted at 50.9. Forex traders can compare this to the Eurozone Markit Composite PMI for October that was reported at 50.6.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Japanese Yen trades:
- Japanese National CPI: The Japanese National CPI for October increased by 0.2% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 0.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Japanese National CPI for September that increased by 0.2% annualized. The Japanese National Core CPI for October increased by 0.7% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 0.6% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Japanese National Core CPI for September that increased by 0.5% annualized. The Japanese National CPI Excluding Fresh Food for October increased by 0.4% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 0.4% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Japanese National CPI Excluding Fresh Food for September that increased by 0.3% annualized.
- Japanese Nikkei Manufacturing PMI: The Preliminary Japanese Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for November was reported at 48.6. Forex traders can compare this to the Japanese Nikkei Manufacturing PMI October that was reported at 48.4.
- Japanese Jibun Bank Services PMI and Composite PMI: The Preliminary Japanese Jibun Bank Services PMI for November was reported at 50.4. Forex traders can compare this to the previous Japanese Jibun Bank Services PMI for October that was reported at 50.3. The Preliminary Japanese Jibun Bank Composite PMI for November was reported at 49.9. Forex traders can compare this to the previous Japanese Jibun Bank Composite PMI for October that was reported at 49.8.
Should price action for the EURJPY remain inside the or breakdown below the 119.900 to 120.550 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 120.150
- Take Profit Zone: 115.850 – 116.550
- Stop Loss Level: 121.100
Should price action for the EURJPY breakout above 120.550 the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 121.100
- Take Profit Zone: 122.600 – 123.350
- Stop Loss Level: 120.550
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