Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
Japanese Household Spending for November contracted by 1.0% monthly and 2.9% annualized. Economists predicted a decrease of 0.2% and 2.3%. Forex traders can compare this to Japanese Household Spending for October, which dropped by 0.1% monthly and 2.5% annualized.
German Industrial Production for November dropped by 0.7% monthly and 4.9% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to German Industrial Production for October, which contracted by 0.3% monthly and 3.4% annualized.
The French Trade Balance for November came in at -€5.9B, and the French Current Account Balance at -€2.8B. Forex traders can compare this to the French Trade Balance for October, reported at -€8.5B, and the French Current Account Balance at -€3.4B. French Exports for November came in at €49.5B, and French Imports at €55.4B. Forex traders can compare this to French Exports for October, reported at €49.7B, and French Imports at €58.2B.
The Italian Unemployment Rate for November is predicted at 7.9%. Forex traders can compare this to the Italian Unemployment Rate for October, reported at 7.8%.
The Eurozone Unemployment Rate for November is predicted at 6.5%. Forex traders can compare this to the Eurozone Unemployment Rate for October, reported at 6.5%.
The start of the 2024 trading year has been slow on the economic front, but released reports indicate inflationary pressures and expectations rose at the end of 2023. As inflation remains sticky, underlying economic indicators point to weakness. Economists are split about 2024 and the rest of this decade. Some warn that recession risks are high, and others claim decarbonization and artificial intelligence will start the next economic supercycle, which has not happened since the 1980s. 2024 could deliver stagflation and volatility, which most traders discount.
The forecast for the EUR/JPY turned cautiously bearish after this currency pair advanced into its horizontal resistance area. The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud adds to downside pressure after a bearish crossover, with the Senkou Span A shifting lower, but the Senkou Span B flatlined. Volatility could remain high after the Tenkan-sen has begun to move higher following a bearish crossover as the Kijun-sen continues to descend. Traders should also monitor the CCI following its breakdown from extreme overbought territory. This technical indicator has plenty of downside potential, and a move below zero could trigger the next wave of sell orders. Can bears overpower bulls and drive price action in the EUR/JPY into its horizontal support area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the EURJPY remain inside the or breakdown below the 157.450 to 158.450 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 157.950
- Take Profit Zone: 153.150 – 154.450
- Stop Loss Level: 159.000
Should price action for the EURJPY breakout above 158.450, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 159.000
- Take Profit Zone: 159.600 – 160.600
- Stop Loss Level: 158.450
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