The ECB is under a new President, but the same problems are expected to plague the slowing economy which also struggles with the absence of inflation. Today’s PPI data is expected to confirm that the ECB has failed its mandate of price stability and many analysts suggest that the central bank will remain loyal to policies Draghi implemented. Hungary’s central bank labelled the Euro a trap which is doomed to fail, will traders slowly agree with this idea? Will the EURGBP rally off of support or is another breakdown possible? Today’s fundamental analysis will take a look at price action in both directions.
With UK elections roughly five weeks away, Brexit uncertainty elevated and a slowing economy, forex traders will wait for today’s Services and Composite PMI data which is expected to remain below 50.0 and in contractionary conditions. Can economic data out of the UK surprise to the upside and rally bulls or will it come in below expectations and give bears a reason to push the EURGBP higher? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Euro trades:
- Spanish Unemployment Change: The Spanish Unemployment Change for October was reported at 97.9K. Forex traders can compare this to the Spanish Unemployment Change for September which was reported at 13.9K.
- Eurozone PPI: The Eurozone PPI for September is predicted to increase by 0.1% monthly and to decrease by 1.2% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Eurozone PPI for August which decreased by 0.5% monthly and by 0.8% annualized.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for British Pound trades:
- UK BRC Like-for-Like Sales: UK BRC Like-for-Like Sales for October decreased by 1.6% annualized. Economists predicted a flat reading of 0.0% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to UK BRC Like-for-Like Sales for September which decreased by 1.7% annualized.
- UK Markit/CIPS Services PMI and Markit/CIPS Composite PMI: The UK Markit/CIPS Services PMI for October is predicted at 49.7 and the UK Markit/CIPS Composite PMI is predicted at 49.4. Forex traders can compare this to the UK Markit/CIPS Services PMI for August which was reported at 49.5 and to the UK Markit/CIPS Composite PMI which was reported at 49.3.
Should price action for the EURGBP remain inside the or breakout above the 0.8580 to 0.8675 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 0.8635
- Take Profit Zone: 0.8935 – 0.9020
- Stop Loss Level: 0.8520
Should price action for the EURGBP breakdown below 0.8580 the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 0.8520
- Take Profit Zone: 0.8315– 0.8385
- Stop Loss Level: 0.8580
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