Final Eurozone CPI is predicted to confirm the initial reading and show the lack of inflationary pressures. The ECB maintains the monetary policy favored by former President Draghi, but the desired effects remain absent. US Dollar weakness is adding to Euro strength, but the EURGBP is poised to restart its sell-off. Will inflation data have an impact on this currency pair, which is weakening inside of its horizontal resistance area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and grow your balance trade-by-trade.
UK retail sales will be in focus today. Economists anticipate a rebound in December from the previous month’s contraction. The UK economy finished the last two months of 2019 with a string of economic disappointments, will retail sales surprise to the upside, and point towards a resilient consumer? With bears pushing price action lower, can they succeed in forcing a breakdown, or will bulls charge once again? Today’s fundamental analysis will take a look at the upside potential as well as the downside risk in this currency pair.
Here is the key factor to keep in mind today for Euro trades:
- Italian CPI: The Final Italian CPI for December is predicted to increase by 0.2% monthly and by 0.5% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the previous Italian CPI for December, which increased by 0.2% monthly and 0.5% annualized. The Final Italian Harmonized CPI for December is predicted to increase by 0.2% monthly and by 0.5% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the previous Italian Harmonized CPI for December, which increased by 0.2% monthly and 0.5% annualized.
- Eurozone Final CPI: The Eurozone CPI for December is predicted to increase by 0.3% monthly and to increase by 1.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the previous Eurozone CPI for December, which increased by 0.3% monthly and 1.3% annualized. The Final Eurozone Core CPI for December is predicted to increase by 0.4% monthly and by 1.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the previous Eurozone Core CPI for December, which increases by 0.4% monthly and 1.3% annualized. The Final Eurozone Harmonized Core CPI for December is predicted to increase by 0.3% monthly and by 1.4% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the previous Eurozone Harmonized Core CPI for December, which increased by 0.3% monthly and 1.4% annualized.
Here is the key factor to keep in mind today for British Pound trades:
- UK Retail Sales: UK Retail Sales for December are predicted to increase by 0.8% monthly and by 3.0% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to UK Retail Sales for November, which decreased by 0.6% monthly, and which increased by 0.8% annualized. UK Retail Sales Including Auto and Fuel for December are predicted to increase by 0.6% monthly and by 2.7% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to UK Retail Sales Including Auto and Fuel for November, which decreased by 0.6% monthly, and which increased by 1.0% annualized.
Should price action for the EURGBP remain inside the or breakdown below the 0.8500 to 0.8560 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 0.8510
- Take Profit Zone: 0.8275 – 0.8350
- Stop Loss Level: 0.8575
Should price action for the EURGBP breakout above 0.8560 the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 0.8575
- Take Profit Zone: 0.8700 – 0.8750
- Stop Loss Level: 0.8560
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