Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
UK BRC Retail Sales for April plunged by 4.4% annualized. Economists predicted a rise of 1.6% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to UK BRC Retail Sales for March, which increased by 3.2% annualized.
The UK Halifax House Price Index for April increased by 0.1% monthly and 1.1% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the UK Halifax House Price Index for March, which dropped by 0.9% monthly and rose by 0.4% annualized.
German Factory Orders for March decreased by 0.4% monthly. Economists predicted a rise of 0.4%. Forex traders can compare this to German Factory Orders for February, which dropped 0.8% monthly.
The German Trade Balance for March came in at €22.3B. Economists predicted a figure of €22.4B. Forex traders can compare this to the German Trade Balance for February, reported at €21.4B. Exports for March rose by 0.9% monthly, and Imports by 0.3% monthly. Economists predicted an increase of 0.4% and a contraction of 1.0%. Forex traders can compare this to Exports for February, which dropped by 2.0% monthly, and Imports, which rose by 3.2% monthly.
French non-farm payrolls for the first quarter are predicted flat at 0.0% quarterly. Forex traders can compare this to French non-arm payrolls for the fourth quarter, which were flat at 0.0% quarterly.
The French Trade Balance for March is predicted at -€5.00B. Forex traders can compare this to the French Trade Balance for February, reported at -€5.20B.
The UK S&P/CIPS Construction PMI for April is predicted at 50.4. Forex traders can compare this to the UK S&P/CIPS Construction PMI for March, reported at 50.2.
Eurozone Retail Sales for March are predicted to increase by 0.6% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Eurozone Retail Sales for February, which contracted by 0.5% monthly.
The forecast for the EUR/GBP has turned cautiously bearish after a rise in volatility left price action above its descending Tenkan-sen and below its flat Kijun-sen, following a bearish crossover. The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud confirms the stand-off between bulls and bears with the Senkou Span A and the Senkou Span B flat, forming a narrow Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud. Traders should also monitor the CCI after crossing above zero. The lack of bullishness could push this technical indicator lower and into extreme oversold territory, dragging price action down. Can bears overpower bulls and force the EUR/GBP into its horizontal support area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the EUR/GBP remain inside the or breakdown below the 0.8550 to 0.8585 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 0.8575
- Take Profit Zone: 0.8455 – 0.8495
- Stop Loss Level: 0.8605
Should price action for the EUR/GBP breakout above 0.8585, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 0.8605
- Take Profit Zone: 0.8645 – 0.8670
- Stop Loss Level: 0.8585
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