Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
The final fourth-quarter UK GDP increased by 1.3% quarterly and decreased by 7.3% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 1.0% quarterly and a decrease of 7.8% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the third-quarter UK GDP, which increased by 16.9% quarterly and decreased by 8.5% annualized. Final fourth-quarter UK Total Business Investment increased by 5.9% quarterly and decreased by 7.4% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the third-quarter UK Total Business Investment, which increased by 14.5% quarterly and decreased by 11.6% annualized.
UK Nationwide House Prices for March decreased by 0.2% monthly and increased by 5.7% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 0.4% and 6.4%. Forex traders can compare this to UK Nationwide House Prices for February, which increased by 0.7% monthly and by 6.9% annualized. The UK Current Account Balance for the fourth quarter was reported at -£26.3B. Economists predicted a figure of -£33.0B. Forex traders can compare this to the UK Current Account for the third quarter, reported at -£14.3B.
The German Unemployment Change for March is predicted at -3.0K and the German Unemployment Rate at 6.0%. Forex traders can compare this to the German Unemployment Change for February, reported at 9.0K, and to the German Unemployment Rate, reported at 6.0%. The Eurozone CPI for March is predicted to increase by 1.3% annualized and the Eurozone Core CPI is predicted to increase by 1.1% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Eurozone CPI for February, which increased by 0.9% annualized, and to the Eurozone Core CPI, which increased by 1.2% annualized.
The forecast for the EUR/GBP remains bearish in the medium term amid worsening conditions across the Eurozone. A lack of vaccines and a dispute with AstraZeneca, one of the primary vaccine manufacturers, and extended regional lockdowns apply downside pressure on economic activity. At the same time, debt continues to rise. The descending Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud suggests more downside potential, but the pace of selling may ease after the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen turned sideways. Traders should wait for the CCI to punch out of extreme oversold territory. From there, another contraction is likely before taking short positions. Can bears extend the sell-off in the EUR/GBP into its next horizontal support area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the EUR/GBP remain inside the or breakdown below the 0.8505 to 0.8575 zone, the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 0.8530
- Take Profit Zone: 0.8280 – 0.8350
- Stop Loss Level: 0.8620
Should price action for the EUR/GBP breakout above 0.8575, the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 0.8620
- Take Profit Zone: 0.8730 – 0.8790
- Stop Loss Level: 0.8575
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