Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
The UK Jobless Claims Change for June is predicted at -41.2K. Forex traders can compare this to the UK Jobless Claims Change for May, reported at -19.7K.
The UK Employment Change for the tri-monthly period ending in May is predicted at 170K, and the ILO Unemployment Rate is predicted at 3.9%. Forex traders can compare this to the UK Employment Change for April, reported at 177K, and to the ILO Unemployment Rate, reported at 3.8%. Average Weekly Earnings for the tri-monthly period ending in May are predicted to increase by 6.7% annualized, and Average Weekly Earnings Excluding Bonuses 4.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to Average Weekly Earnings for April, which increased by 6.8%, and Average Weekly Earnings Excluding Bonuses, which increased by 4.2%.
The Eurozone CPI for June is predicted to increase 0.8% monthly and 8.6% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Eurozone CPI for May, which rose 0.8% monthly and 8.1% annualized. The Eurozone Core CPI for June is predicted to rise 0.2% monthly and 3.7% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Eurozone Core CPI for May, which increased 0.5% monthly and 3.8% annualized. The Eurozone Harmonized Core CPI for June is predicted to rise 0.4% monthly and 4.6% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Eurozone Harmonized Core CPI for May, which expanded 0.7% monthly and 4.4% annualized.
Financial markets remain volatile, as evident during the reversal yesterday when US markets opened higher following a positive week before reversing and closing the session in the red. Earnings season will accelerate this week and is expected to provide downside catalysts, confirming the end of the bear market rally. Cryptocurrencies surged from depressed levels but are vulnerable to following equity markets lower throughout the year. The Eurozone CPI reading for June is the last one before the ECB meets on Thursday, where markets await if they raise rates by 25 basis points or opt for a 50 basis point hike.
The forecast for the EUR/GBP remains bearish after this currency pair stabilized inside of its Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud. It shows an increase in bearishness with a descending Senkou Span A and a pending crossover below the Senkou Span B. Short-term volatility could remain higher with the Tenkan-sen moving lower and the Kijun-sen flat. Traders should pay attention to the CCI following its breakout above extreme oversold conditions. It remains below zero and is vulnerable to a secondary push below -100. Can bears maintain control over the EUR/GBP and force it into its horizontal support area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the EUR/GBP remain inside the or breakdown below the 0.8455 to 0.8520 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 0.8485
- Take Profit Zone: 0.8250 – 0.8295
- Stop Loss Level: 0.8560
Should price action for the EUR/GBP breakout above 0.8520, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 0.8560
- Take Profit Zone: 0.8610 – 0.8675
- Stop Loss Level: 0.8520
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