Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
The German Trade Balance for May came in at a €14.4B. Economists predicted a figure of €17.5B. Forex traders can compare this to German Trade Balance for April, reported at €16.5B. Exports for May decreased by 0.1% monthly, and Imports expanded by 1.7% monthly. Economists predicted a rise of 0.3% and 3.1%. Forex traders can compare this to Exports for April, which rose by 1.0% monthly, and Imports, which decreased by 0.1% monthly.
The Spanish Unemployment Change for June is predicted at -63.5K. Forex traders can compare this to the Spanish Unemployment Change for May, reported at -49.3K.
The Italian Public Deficit for the first quarter is predicted at 10.9% quarterly. Forex traders can compare this to the Italian Public Deficit for the fourth quarter, which came in at 5.6% quarterly.
The Canadian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June is predicted at 49.6. Forex traders can compare this to the Canadian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for May, reported at 49.0.
Traders are digesting the surprise pause in the interest rate hike campaign by the Reserve Bank of Australia, which kept interest rates at 4.10%. The Australian central bank noted that peak inflation passed and followed the US Federal Reserve. It is unclear if the RBA opted for a hawkish pause like its US counterpart or if the RBA believes it acted sufficiently to bring inflation down over the coming months.
PMI reports from the Eurozone and the US showed an ongoing slowdown in activity and hiring but also a contraction in producer prices. Traders should get comfortable with the potential of a rolling recession rather than a traditional one, where some sectors experience a downturn, like manufacturing now, followed by other sectors, like services, at a delayed stage after manufacturing activity expands.
The forecast for the EUR/CAD remains cautiously bullish after this currency pair drifted higher and above its horizontal support area. Adding to moderate bullishness is the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud, which ended its downward shift and stabilized. A narrowing of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud can provide further upside pressure. Volatility may increase in the short term with the Kijun-sen and the Tenkan-sen flat. Traders should also monitor the CCI after retreating from a brief spike into extreme overbought territory. This technical indicator remains above zero and has plenty of upside potential. Can bulls maintain control over price action in the EUR/CAD and push this currency pair into its horizontal resistance area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the EUR/CAD remain inside the or breakout above the 1.4415 to 1.4465 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.4440
- Take Profit Zone: 1.4700 – 1.4800
- Stop Loss Level: 1.4345
Should price action for the EUR/CAD breakdown below 1.4415, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.4345
- Take Profit Zone: 1.4240 – 1.4285
- Stop Loss Level: 1.4415
Open your PaxForex Trading Account now and add this currency pair to your forex portfolio.
