Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
The Reserve Bank of Australia increased interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.85%. Economists predicted no change. Forex traders can compare this to the previous Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision, which kept interest rates at 3.60%. The RBA also noted that more hikes are necessary to bring inflation down to its target range between 2.00% and 3.00%, which the central bank predicts will take several years.
German Retail Sales for March decreased by 2.4% monthly and plunged by 8.6% annualized. Economists predicted a rise of 0.4% and a drop of 6.1%. Forex traders can compare this to German Retail Sales for February, which contracted by 0.3% monthly and collapsed by 7.1% annualized.
The Spanish S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for April is predicted at 49.0. Forex traders can compare this to the Spanish S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for March, reported at 51.3.
The Italian Manufacturing PMI for April is predicted at 49.0. Forex traders can compare this to the Italian Manufacturing PMI for March, reported at 51.1.
The Final French Manufacturing PMI for April is predicted at 45.5. Forex traders can compare this to the French Manufacturing PMI for March, reported at 47.3.
The Final German Manufacturing PMI for April is predicted at 44.0. Forex traders can compare this to the German Manufacturing PMI for March, reported at 44.0.
The Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for April is predicted at 45.5. Forex traders can compare this to the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for March, reported at 47.3.
Eurozone M3 Money Supply for March is predicted to increase by 2.4% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to Eurozone M3 Money Supply for February, which rose by 2.9% annualized. Eurozone Private Sector Loans for March are predicted to expand by 3.2% annualized, and Loans to Non-Financial Corporations are predicted to surge by 5.8%. Forex traders can compare this to Eurozone Private Sector Loans for February, which rose by 3.2% annualized, and Loans to Non-Financial Corporations, which increased by 5.7%.
The Preliminary Italian CPI for April is predicted to expand 0.3% monthly and 8.2% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Italian CPI for March, which decreased 0.4% monthly and surged 7.6% annualized. The Preliminary Italian Harmonized CPI for April is predicted to drop 0.1% monthly and surge by 7.8% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Italian Harmonized CPI for March, which rose 0.8% monthly and accelerated by 8.1% annualized.
The Eurozone CPI for April is predicted to increase by 0.9% monthly and 7.0% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Eurozone CPI for March, which rose by 0.9% monthly and 6.9% annualized. The Eurozone Core CPI for April is predicted to expand by 1.1% monthly and 5.7% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Eurozone Core CPI for March, which increased by 1.3% monthly and 5.7% annualized.
The Italian PPI for March is predicted to plunge by 4.6% monthly and rise by 1.8% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Italian PPI for February, which decreased by 1.0% monthly and surged by 9.6% annualized.
The forecast for the EUR/AUD remains bearish after this currency pair retreated from its 2023 peak with rising selling pressure. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are flat but expected to trend lower, while the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud shows signs of narrowing with the Senkou Span A beginning to trend lower with the Senkou Span B flat. Traders should also monitor the CCI following its rapid double breakdown from extreme overbought territory and below zero. This technical indicator has plenty of downside potential to lead this currency pair lower. Will bears maintain control of the EUR/AUD and force price action into its horizontal support area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the EUR/AUD remain inside the or breakdown below the 1.6360 to 1.6410 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.6375
- Take Profit Zone: 1.5940 – 1.6035
- Stop Loss Level: 1.6445
Should price action for the EUR/AUD breakout above 1.6410, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.6445
- Take Profit Zone: 1.6505 – 1.6605
- Stop Loss Level: 1.6410
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