EURAUD Fundamental Analysis – February 5th 2015

Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Euro trades:

German Factory Orders: Factory orders rose 4.2% in December month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year. This has helped the EURUSD rally above the 1.1400 as the Euro has enjoyed overall strength. Economists expected an increase of 1.5% and 0.7% respectively. The powerful performance in December has reversed the contraction of 2.4% and 0.4% which was reported in November. Strong economic reports out of Germany have lifted overall Eurozone data over the past few weeks.
Eurozone Markit Retail PMI: The Eurozone retail sector continued its contraction in January with a figure of 46.6. This compares to December’s contraction with a figure of 47.6. The Eurozone consumer has struggled over the past few months, but has held up better than expected given the numerous headwinds. The Euro is likely to ride the tailwind provided out of German factory orders for the rest of this week.

Here is the key factor to keep in mind today for Australian Dollar trades:

Australian HIA New Home Sales: The Australian housing sector performed worse than expected in December as new homes sales contracted by 1.9% month-over-month. This compares to November’s increase of 2.2% and shows that the last two months of 2014 essentially showed very little activity for the Australian summer months.
Australian Retail Sales: Retail sales in Australia rose 0.2% in December month-over-month, but missed economists’ expectations for an increase of 0.3%. Retail sales for November remained unrevised at an increase of 0.1%.

Should price action for the EURAUD remain inside the or breakout above the 1.4600 to 1.4650 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:

Should price action for the EURAUD breakdown below 1.4600 the following trade set-up is recommended:

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