Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of November 4th are predicted at 218K, and US Continuing Claims for the week of October 28th at 1,820K. Forex traders can compare this to US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of October 28th, reported at 217K, and US Continuing Claims for the week of October 21st at 1,818K.
The US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for November is predicted at 40.2. Forex traders can compare this to the US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for October, reported at 36.3.
Today’s economic calendar is light, but it features speeches by three US Federal Reserve members. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, both interest rate-setting FOMC members, will speak during the US morning session. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver remarks in the afternoon. The central bank stuck a dovish tone during its last FOMC meeting and helped equity markets rally. The US Fed will also release its latest balance sheet update. Traders will also get central bank speeches from Japan, the Eurozone, Norway, and Canada.
Another report that could get increased attention is the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report. It covers the global supply-use balances of major grains, soybeans, and cotton. It also highlights the supply and use of US sugar and livestock products. High inflation continues to pressure consumers, where US consumers opt to finance their lifestyle by increasing debt. Credit card debt in the US topped $1 trillion and continues to rise, with credit card interest rates at all-time highs. With the consumer driving towards a cliff, interest rates and inflation high, and a slowing economy, equity markets could sell off sharply.
The forecast for the Dow Jones 30 turned bearish after this equity index accelerated into its descending Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud and a horizontal resistance area. Following a bearish crossover, the Senkou Span continues to drift lower, with the Senkou Span shifting downward but presently flat. Volatility could increase as bulls and bears wrestle for directional control. The Kijun-sen flatlined, and the Tenkan-sen moved higher after completing a bullish crossover, which could reverse given the decrease in bullish momentum. Traders should also monitor the CCI following the breakdown from extreme overbought territory. This technical indicator could move below zero, adding to mounting selling pressure and accelerating the expected price action reversal. Can bears regain control over the Dow Jones 30 and pressure this equity index into its horizontal support area, potentially extending the slide to fresh 2023 lows? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the Dow Jones 30 Index remain inside the or breakdown below the 33,970 to 34,210 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 34.100
- Take Profit Zone: 32.300 – 32.720
- Stop Loss Level: 34.470
Should price action for the Dow Jones 30 Index breakout above 34,210, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 34.470
- Take Profit Zone: 34.855 – 35.065
- Stop Loss Level: 34.210
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