Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
Consider how far Bitcoin has come. Once valued at mere pennies, it has burgeoned over the past fifteen years to exceed $60,000. While most expect Bitcoin to continue its ascent over the next decade and a half, what about the near future?
Let's delve into some speculation about where Bitcoin might head by 2025. Despite its unpredictable price swings, Bitcoin has followed a remarkably consistent pattern since its inception in 2009, cycling through roughly four-year phases. These cycles align with Bitcoin's halving events, occurring every 210,000 blocks added to its blockchain. Each halving cuts Bitcoin's inflation rate in half, creating a supply shock that historically drives its price upward, even if demand remains steady.
Typically, this four-year cycle unfolds predictably. It begins with a bear market phase, as seen in 2022, marked by a sharp decline from a peak. The subsequent year tends to bring a recovery phase, akin to 2023's upward trend. The third year, which includes the halving (as occurred in April), often sees significant price increases due to anticipation of reduced supply. Finally, if history repeats itself, the fourth year - 2025 in this scenario - tends to witness substantial gains for Bitcoin.
While there are no guarantees, Bitcoin seems to be adhering to its historical cycle. Assuming this pattern persists, we can speculate on its 2025 price based on past performance. Let's first consider 2024, the current year, given Bitcoin's recent halving in April.
As noted, halving events profoundly impact Bitcoin's price. In 2012, after its first halving, Bitcoin surged 119%. Four years later in 2016, it climbed 93%. In 2020, following another halving, it soared by 174%. On average, Bitcoin has historically increased by approximately 125% in halving years. This historical context sets the stage for projecting Bitcoin's trajectory into 2025.
If Bitcoin were to grow by 125%, starting from its price at the beginning of 2024, a $99,000 Bitcoin by the end of the year would be a reasonable expectation. Considering Bitcoin has already appreciated by approximately 60% this year, achieving another 60% increase to meet historical norms might seem significant. However, Bitcoin has shown in the past that it can cover such ground in just a couple of months.
If 2024 follows this trajectory, a near-$100,000 Bitcoin to start off 2025 would be impressive and presents a compelling investment opportunity today. Yet, historical data suggests that the full impact of Bitcoin's halving event typically unfolds in the year following the halving.
After Bitcoin's first halving in 2012, it surged by an extraordinary 840% in 2013. Following the 2016 halving, it saw a 331% increase in 2017. Then, after the 2020 halving, it rose by a solid 174%. On average, Bitcoin has historically gained around 400% during these post-halving years. Projecting from a projected starting point of $99,000 at the beginning of 2025, a 400% increase would potentially elevate Bitcoin's price to nearly $500,000 by the end of the next year.
It's essential to note that past performance does not guarantee future results. However, the continuation of Bitcoin's established four-year cycle remains compelling. The full impact of the halving typically takes at least a year to materialize. Even if Bitcoin falls short of the average gains seen in post-halving years in 2025 or if the cycle deviates, Bitcoin's unique attributes - such as its finite supply of 21 million coins, industry-leading decentralization, and robust security - suggest it holds significant long-term potential compared to other assets.
Bitcoin has established itself as the quintessential cryptocurrency, poised to continue its journey of price appreciation for years to come.
Time frame: D1
As long as the price is above 55000.00, follow the recommendations below:
- Recommendation: long position
- Entry point: 61484.00
- Take Profit 1: 75000.00
- Take profit 2: 80000.00
Alternative scenario:
If the 55000.00 level is broken-down, follow the recommendations below:
- Time frame: D1
- Recommendation: short position
- Entry point: 55000.00
- Take Profit 1: 50000.00
- Take Profit 2: 45000.00
