Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
The Australian Trade Balance for August came in at A$9,640M. Economists predicted a figure of A$8.725M. Forex traders can compare this to the Australian Trade Balance for July, reported at A$8,039M. Exports for August rose by 4.0% monthly, and imports were flat at 0.0%. Forex traders can compare this to exports for July, which contracted by 2.0%, and imports, which expanded by 3.0%.
The Hong Kong Manufacturing PMI for September came in at 49.6. Forex traders can compare this to the Hong Kong Manufacturing PMI for August, reported at 49.8.
The US Trade Balance for August is predicted at -$62.30B. Forex traders can compare this to the US Trade Balance for July, reported at -$65.00B.
US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of September 30th are predicted at 210K, and US Continuing Claims for the week of September 23rd at 1,675K. Forex traders can compare this to US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of September 23rd, reported at 204K, and US Continuing Claims for the week of September 16th, reported at 1,670K.
US Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending September 29th are predicted at 92B cubic feet. Traders can compare this to US Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending September 22nd, reported at 90B cubic feet.
Traders await tomorrow’s US September NFP report, which could result in massive price swings in US Dollar crosses. Yesterday’s AFP report showed only 89K job creations, which fell well short of expectations. It also showed the twelfth consecutive monthly decrease in wages, which bodes well for inflation but puts the US consumer under further pressure.
The forecast for the AUD/USD remains cautiously bullish as this currency pair spent the past six weeks establishing its horizontal support area. Following a bearish crossover, the Kijun-sen and the Tenkan-sen have both flatlined, pointing toward a power struggle between bulls and bears for directional control, which could lead to more volatility. The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud shows early signs of a bullish move, with the Senkou Span A slowly drifting higher. Traders should also monitor the CCI, which moved out of extreme oversold territory. A sustained breakout and push above zero could trigger a reversal rally, as this technical indicator has plenty of upside potential. Can bulls overpower bears and regain control over the AUD/USD to drive price action into its horizontal resistance area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the AUD/USD remain inside the or breakout above the 0.6315 to 0.6375 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 0.6355
- Take Profit Zone: 0.6570 – 0.6625
- Stop Loss Level: 0.6285
Should price action for the AUD/USD breakdown below 0.6315, PaxForex the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 0.6285
- Take Profit Zone: 0.6170 – 0.6210
- Stop Loss Level: 0.6315
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