Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence for March was flat at 0.0% monthly at 78.5. Forex traders can compare this to Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence for February, which plunged 6.9% monthly to 78.5.
Australian NAB Business Conditions for February came in at 17, and Australian NAB Business Confidence at -4. Economists predicted a reading of 21 and 0. Forex traders can compare this to NAB Business Conditions for March, reported at 18, and Australian NAB Business Confidence at 6.
The US CPI for February is predicted to increase by 0.4% monthly and by 6.0% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the US CPI for January, which rose by 0.5% monthly and 6.4% annualized. The US Core CPI for February is predicted to expand by 0.4% monthly and by 5.5% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the US Core CPI for January, which rose by 0.4% monthly and 5.6% annualized.
Today’s US CPI report, and tomorrow’s PPI report, are the last two inflation readings the US Federal Reserve will get before its much anticipated FOMC meeting next week. Consensus believes the central bank will hike interest rates by 25 basis points to maintain its inflation-fighting credibility. It comes despite the second-largest and the third-largest bank failures in US history during 48 hours this past weekend. Regional banks are under pressure as their fixed-income securities decrease in value, which has caused Silicon Valley Bank to collapse. The second half of 2023 could witness more US bank failures, and short-term counter-productive long-term measures the US government took to safeguard uninsured deposits may trigger a broader crisis in the US financial system.
The forecast for the AUD/USD turned cautiously bullish after this currency pair stabilized at its horizontal support area following a 650+ pips sell-off. A false bearish crossover in the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud approaches a reversal, with the ascending Senkou Span B leading the way. Volatility could rise as the Tenkan-sen shifts moderately lower while the Kijun-sen flatlined as bulls and bears wrestle for directional control. Traders should also monitor the CCI after a positive divergence in extreme oversold territory has led to a breakout. A move by this technical indicator above zero could trigger the next advance in price action. Can bulls overrun bears and regain control over the AUD/USD to drive this currency pair into its horizontal resistance area, which envelopes the false bearish crossover of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the AUD/USD remain inside the or breakout above the 0.6630 to 0.6700 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 0.6655
- Take Profit Zone: 0.6860 – 0.6920
- Stop Loss Level: 0.6590
Should price action for the AUD/USD breakdown below 0.6630, PaxForex the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 0.6590
- Take Profit Zone: 0.6450 – 0.6500
- Stop Loss Level: 0.6630
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