Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
The Australian CPI for the second quarter increased 1.8% quarterly and 6.1% annualized. Economists predicted an expansion of 1.9% quarterly and 6.2% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Australian CPI for the first quarter, which rose 2.1% quarterly and 5.1% annualized. The RBA Trimmed Mean CPI for the second quarter increased 1.5% quarterly and 4.9% annualized. Economists predicted a rise of 1.5% quarterly and 4.7% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the RBA Trimmed Mean CPI for the first quarter, which expanded 1.4% quarterly and 3.7% annualized. The RBA Weighted Median CPI for the second quarter rose 1.4% quarterly and 4.2% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 1.4% quarterly and 4.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the RBA Weighted Median CPI for the first quarter, which expanded 1.0% quarterly and 3.2% annualized.
Chinese Industrial Profits for June increased 0.8% annualized and 1.0% year-to-date, ending in June. Forex traders can compare this to Chinese Industrial Profits for May, which dropped 6.5% annualized and rose 1.0% year-to-date, ending in May.
US Preliminary Durable Goods Orders for June are predicted to contract by 0.5% monthly, and Durables Excluding Transportation to rise by 0.2% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Durable Goods Orders for May, which rose 0.8% monthly, and Durables Excluding Transportation by 0.7% monthly. Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft for June are predicted to rise 0.2% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft for May, which increased 0.6% monthly.
US Pending Home Sales for June are predicted to drop 1.5% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Pending Home Sales for May, which rose 0.7% monthly.
US Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending July 22nd are predicted at -1.037M. Traders can compare this to US Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending July 15th, reported at -0.446M. US Gasoline Inventories for the week ending July 22nd are predicted at -0.857M and US Distillate Stocks at 0.500M. Traders can compare this to US Gasoline Inventories for the week ending July 15th, reported at 3.498M, and US Distillate Stocks at -1.295M.
The US Federal Reserve is expected to hike interest rates by 75 basis points to 2.50%. Forex traders can compare it to the previous FOMC meeting, where the US central bank increased interest rates by 75 basis points to 1.75%. Some analysts believe a 100 basis point hike remains on the table, mirroring the surprise Bank of Canada announcement, but weakness across economic indicators makes it less likely than several weeks ago. The outlook for monetary policy and inflationary conditions will likely move the US Dollar during the Powell press conference, which can send ripple effects across financial markets.
The forecast for the AUD/USD turned bearish in the short-term as the descending Ichimoku Kinko Hyo continues to apply downside pressure. Volatility can accelerate after the descending Kijun-sen has crossed below the ascending Tenkan-sen. Traders should monitor the CCI, which completed a breakdown from extreme overbought territory. A move below zero could accelerate the pending correction. Can bears regain control of price action and force the AUD/USD into its horizontal support area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the AUD/USD remain inside the or breakdown below the 0.6890 to 0.6980 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 0.6930
- Take Profit Zone: 0.6675 – 0.6730
- Stop Loss Level: 0.7020
Should price action for the AUD/USD breakout above 0.6980, PaxForex the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 0.7020
- Take Profit Zone: 0.7120 – 0.7180
- Stop Loss Level: 0.6980
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