Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations for February increased by 5.1% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations for January, which rose 5.6% annualized.
The Australian Employment Change for January came in at -11.5K, and the Unemployment Rate at 3.7%. Economists predicted a figure of 20.0K and 3.5%. Forex traders can compare this to the Australian Employment Change for December, reported at -19.9K, and the Unemployment Rate reported at 3.5%. 43.3K Full-Time Positions were lost, and 31.8K Part-Time Positions were created in January. Forex traders can compare this to the creation of 14.4K Full-Time Positions and the loss of 34.3K Part-Time Positions reported in December. The Labor Force Participation Rate for January came in at 66.5%. Economists predicted a reading of 66.6%. Forex traders can compare this to the Labor Force Participation Rate for December, reported at 66.6%.
US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of February 11th are predicted at 200K, and US Continuing Claims for the week of February 4th are predicted at 1,695K. Forex traders can compare this to US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of February 4th, reported at 196K, and US Continuing Claims for the week of January 28th at 1,688K.
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for February is predicted at -7.4. Forex traders can compare this to the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for January, reported at -8.9. Traders should focus on the CAPEX, Prices Paid, New Orders, and Employment sub-components.
US Housing Starts for January are predicted at 1,360K starts, and Building Permits at 1,350K permits. Forex traders can compare this to US Housing Starts for December, reported at 1,382K starts, and Building Permits at 1,337K permits.
The US PPI for January is predicted to increase by 0.4% monthly and 5.4% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the US PPI for December, which decreased by 0.4% monthly and rose by 6.4% annualized. The US Core PPI for January is predicted to expand by 0.3% monthly and by 4.9% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the US Core PPI for December, which rose by 0.1% monthly and 5.5% annualized.
US Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending February 10th are predicted at -109B cubic feet. Traders can compare this to US Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending February 3rd, reported at -217B cubic feet.
The forecast for the AUD/USD remains bearish after this currency pair formed a head-and-shoulders pattern. Adding to downside pressures are the descending Tenkan-sen and the collapsing Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud. The flat Kijun-sen suggests a potential volatility increase. Traders should also monitor the CCI after it recorded several lower highs. This technical indicator bounced higher from extreme oversold territory but could not maintain momentum. A reversal is likely to take price action lower. Can bears maintain their dominance over the AUD/USD and force it into its horizontal support area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the AUD/USD remain inside the or breakdown below the 0.6865 to 0.6940 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 0.6920
- Take Profit Zone: 0.6630 – 0.6685
- Stop Loss Level: 0.7000
Should price action for the AUD/USD breakout above 0.6940, PaxForex the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 0.7010
- Take Profit Zone: 0.7080 – 0.7135
- Stop Loss Level: 0.6940
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