Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
The New Zealand Trade Balance for March came in at -NZ$1,273M monthly and at -NZ$16,400M annualized. Economists predicted a figure of -NZ$920M and -NZ$16,450M. Forex traders can compare this to the New Zealand Trade Balance for February, reported at -NZ$796M monthly and -NZ$15,720M annualized. Exports for March came in at NZ$6.51B, and Imports at NZ$7.78B. Economists predicted a figure of NZ$6.10B and NZ$6.80B. Forex traders can compare this to Exports for February, reported at NZ$5.06B, and Imports at NZ$5.86B.
New Zealand Credit Card Spending for March sky-rocketed 20.3% annualized. Economists predicted a rise of 28.0%. Forex traders can compare this to New Zealand Credit Card Spending for February, which surged 25.5% annualized.
The Australian CPI for the first quarter increased 1.4% quarterly and 7.0% annualized. Economists predicted an expansion of 1.3% quarterly and 6.9% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Australian CPI for the fourth quarter, which rose 1.9% quarterly and 7.8% annualized. The RBA Trimmed Mean CPI for the first quarter increased by 1.2% quarterly and 6.6% annualized. Economists predicted a rise of 1.4% quarterly and of 6.7% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the RBA Trimmed Mean CPI for the fourth quarter, which expanded 1.7% quarterly and 6.9% annualized. The RBA Weighted Median CPI for the first quarter rose 1.2% quarterly and 5.8% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 1.3% quarterly and 5.9% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the RBA Weighted Median CPI for the fourth quarter, which expanded by 1.6% quarterly and 5.8% annualized.
The forecast for the AUD/NZD is cautiously bullish after this currency pair reversed a breakout above its Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud. Volatility could rise as bulls and bears fight for control, while price action is between its flat Kijun-sen and its flat Tenkan-sen. The Senkou Span A of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud started to drift higher, while the Senkou Span B is flat. It should narrow the cloud, adding to bullish pressures. Traders should also monitor the CCI after its breakout from extreme overbought territory. This technical indicator also moved into negative territory and could use the upper level of extreme oversold conditions to bounce higher. Can bulls overpower bears and regain control of the AUD/NZD to push price action into its horizontal resistance area above its Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the AUD/NZD remain inside the or breakout above the 1.0750 to 1.0800 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.0770
- Take Profit Zone: 1.0930 – 1.0980
- Stop Loss Level: 1.0715
Should price action for the AUD/NZD breakdown below 1.0750, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.0715
- Take Profit Zone: 1.0620– 1.0670
- Stop Loss Level: 1.0750
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