Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
The Australian Trade Balance for January came in at A$11,027M. Economists predicted a figure of A$11.420M. Forex traders can compare this to the Australian Trade Balance for December, reported at A$10,743M. Exports for January rose by 1.6% monthly and imports by 1.3% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to exports for December, which increased by 1.5% monthly, and imports by 2.9% monthly.
Australian Home Loans for January plunged 4.6% monthly, and Investment Lending for Homes contracted 2.6% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Australian Home Loans for December, which dropped by 5.5% monthly, and Investment Lending for Homes, which decreased by 1.3% monthly.
The Chinese Trade Balance for February came in at $125.16B. Economists predicted a figure of $110.30B. Forex traders can compare this to the Chinese Trade Balance for January, reported at $75.34B. Exports for February surged by 7.1% annualized, and Imports increased by 3.5% annualized. Economists predicted a rise of 1.9% and 1.5%. Forex traders can compare this to Exports for January, which expanded by 2.3% annualized, and Imports, which rose by 0.2% annualized.
Chinese Forex Reserves for February are predicted at $3.205T. Forex traders can compare this to Chinese Forex Reserves for January, which were reported at $3.219T.
The Swiss Unemployment Rate for February came in at 2.4%, and the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate at 2.2%. Forex traders can compare this to the Swiss Unemployment Rate for January, reported at 2.5%, and the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate, reported at 2.2%.
The trading day could experience volatility spikes after the ECB interest rate announcement and the release of US labor market data.
The forecast for the AUD/CHF turned cautiously bearish after this currency pair advanced into its horizontal resistance area. Short-term volatility could increase as bulls battle bears for control, and the Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen drift higher. Adding to downside pressures is the narrowing Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud, with the Senkou Span A moving higher and the Senkou Span B flat. With the Senkou Span A losing momentum, a bullish crossover is unlikely or unsustainable. Traders should also monitor the CCI in extreme overbought territory, where a pending reversal could lead to a breakdown below 100 and trigger a sell-off. Can bears overpower bulls and regain control over the AUF/CHF to force price action into its horizontal support area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the AUD/CHF remain inside the or breakdown below the 0.5785 to 0.5825 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 0.5800
- Take Profit Zone: 0.5670 – 0.5700
- Stop Loss Level: 0.5840
Should price action for the AUD/CHF breakout above 0.5825, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 0.5840
- Take Profit Zone: 0.5885 – 0.5925
- Stop Loss Level: 0.5825
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