Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
The Australian AiG Services Index for March came in at 56.2. Forex traders can compare this to the Australian AiG Services Index for February, reported at 60.0.
Australian Building Approvals for February increased by 43.5% monthly and Private House Approvals by 16.5% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Australian Building Approvals for January, which plunged 27.1% monthly, and Private House Approvals, which dropped 16.3% monthly.
The Australian Trade Balance for February came in at A$7,457M. Economists predicted a figure of A$12.000M. Forex traders can compare this to the Australian Trade Balance for January, reported at A$11,786M. Exports for February increased by 0.2% monthly, and imports by 12.0%. Forex traders can compare this to exports for January, which rose 6.1%, and imports, which decreased 2.0%.
The Swiss Unemployment Rate for March is predicted at 2.4%, and the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate at 2.2%. Forex traders can compare this to the Swiss Unemployment Rate for February, reported at 2.5%, and the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate, reported at 2.2%.
Selling pressure on the global financial system is rising, driven by inflation and magnified by the US Federal Reserve's consensus to reduce its massive balance sheet by $95B monthly starting as soon as May. The US central bank also suggested a series of 50 basis point interest rate increases are likely, while the global economy enters a phase of slowing activity. The surge in Covid-19 cases in China strains the tight supply chain, fueling inflationary pressures. The current scenario remains bearish for the Australian Dollar, as evident by today's export data, but favors the Swiss Franc and its safe-haven status.
The forecast for the AUD/CHF turned bearish after resistance rejected this currency pair. Price action moved below its flat Tenkan-sen, hinting at rising bearish pressures, but volatility is likely to increase with the Kijun-sen and the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud ascending. The negative divergence which formed in the CCI in extreme overbought territory, which led to a breakdown below 100, adds bearish momentum. Traders should monitor its trajectory, as a move below zero can accelerate the sell-off. Can bears pressure the AUD/CHF into its horizontal support area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the AUD/CHF remain inside the or breakdown below the 0.6940 to 0.7025 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 0.6975
- Take Profit Zone: 0.6670 – 0.6730
- Stop Loss Level: 0.7090
Should price action for the AUD/CHF breakout above 0.7025, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 0.7090
- Take Profit Zone: 0.7155 – 0.7220
- Stop Loss Level: 0.7025
Open your PaxForex Trading Account now and add this currency pair to your forex portfolio.
