This Friday, the attention of traders will be focused on the first in the new year figures of labor statistics from the United States. Employment in the non-agricultural sector (NonFarm Payrolls), Average Hourly Earnings, as well as the Unemployment Rate will determine the future direction of the American currency.
NonFarm Payrolls
Last data: 266K
Consensus forecast: 160K
We expect US non-farm jobs to grow by 160,000 in December, after an increase of 266,000 in November. Strong December corporate reports on various areas of the American economy indicate its expansion, which, naturally, will affect employment growth.
If the forecast is true, then traders should expect a moderate increase in the dollar against all major competitors.
Average Hourly Earnings
Last data: 0.2%
Consensus forecast: 0.3%
Salary growth is likely to rise to 0.3%. As a rule, in December in the USA many new labor contracts are concluded for the coming year. Given the official data of national statistics, we can expect a total increase in the average hourly earnings. In addition, the December figures will be affected by various pre-holiday bonuses to employees.
If this forecast is true, then this will contribute to the growth of the American currency.
Unemployment Rate
Last data: 3.5%
Consensus forecast: 3.5%
We think that American unemployment will remain at a record low of 3.6%. Despite the uncertainty in resolving the trade dispute with China and the recent aggravation of the political situation in the Middle East, these factors have almost zero effect on the US domestic market and the economy as a whole, which, at the moment, occupies very strong positions.
If this forecast comes true, this may lead to a strengthening of the US dollar.
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