Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Technical Insight
The XRP cryptocurrency, commonly known as Ripple, has experienced significant volatility over the past year. Ripple's price fluctuated between $0.42 and $0.82 per coin during this period, with recent trends pointing towards the lower end of that range.
Despite this volatility, there is optimism about Ripple's potential recovery. By 2025, it is anticipated that Ripple tokens could be valued at least $1 each, reaching levels last seen in the fall of 2011.
Several factors are influencing Ripple's price movements currently:
- Overall Market Sentiment
The broader cryptocurrency market is experiencing fluctuations, impacting Ripple as well. Although Ripple doesn't directly mirror Bitcoin's chart, major developments in Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies can influence Ripple's price. Bitcoin is expected to start a significant uptrend before the year's end, potentially reaching new all-time highs in 2025 and beyond.
- Regulatory Landscape
The ongoing lawsuit between Ripple Labs and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is a crucial factor. Developments in this case, such as court rulings or settlements, can significantly impact Ripple's price. Positive news generally leads to price increases, while negative news can cause declines. Judge Analisa Torres is expected to deliver a verdict in the SEC lawsuit by the end of July, potentially bringing regulatory clarity to the crypto market.
- Adoption and Partnerships
Ripple continues to establish partnerships with financial institutions and payment providers globally. Increased adoption of RippleNet technology for cross-border payments can enhance confidence in Ripple and drive prices higher. Notably, some small nations are considering using Ripple as the foundation for their digital currencies, boosting its real-world application potential.
The SEC lawsuit is arguably the most significant price driver for Ripple. Regulatory actions are a close second, with the Bitcoin effect and other issues trailing behind. The case, which began in December 2020, revolves around whether XRP should be classified as a security. The final outcome will reset Ripple's price and market perception and set a precedent for other cryptocurrencies.
A favorable verdict could lead to a surge in XRP's price by boosting investor confidence and facilitating institutional adoption. Conversely, an unfavorable decision could trigger significant sell-offs and increased regulatory scrutiny. However, Judge Torres has so far leaned towards accepting Ripple's arguments over the SEC's, and a sharp reversal in the lawsuit's final stages is not expected.
Beyond the America-centric SEC case, Ripple operates a global payments service, navigating a complex web of local regulations worldwide. Despite these challenges, RippleNet and the Ripple token are gaining traction.
For instance, Palau is developing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) using Ripple's blockchain ledger, while Bhutan is also considering a Ripple-based CBDC. Such initiatives highlight Ripple's potential, as countries base their digital currencies on its blockchain platform.
Additionally, Ripple has secured payment service partnerships with 80% of Japanese banks. In Switzerland, where cryptocurrencies are legally recognized as assets, Ripple has an active partnership with at least one major bank.
Though the global crypto market is far from having coherent regulations, the increasing number of crypto-friendly regions is a promising start. While legal and regulatory challenges remain unpredictable and potentially difficult, Ripple seems to face limited downside on the international regulatory front.
Ripple is positioned for a significant rebound, bolstered by strategic partnerships, growing adoption, and potential regulatory clarity. Payment volumes on the Ripple network have doubled over the past week, indicating increased use and confidence in its utility for cross-border transactions. An anticipated rise in Bitcoin's value would also positively impact Ripple.
The SEC lawsuit remains crucial. A favorable ruling expected by the end of July could enhance investor confidence and pave the way for institutional adoption.
Ripple's global partnerships and the consideration of Ripple-based digital currencies by various countries underscore its real-world applicability. Additionally, Bitcoin's upcoming rewards halving and potential ETF approvals in early 2024 could foster a bullish market sentiment, indirectly benefiting Ripple.
Overall, Ripple's path to $1 by 2025 is supported by substantial developments and strategic growth. Investors should closely monitor this undervalued cryptocurrency and consider adding Ripple tokens to their portfolios at the current low prices.
As long as the price is below 0.4500, follow the recommendations below
- Time frame: D1
- Recommendation: short position
- Entry point: 0.4248
- Take Profit 1: 0.3800
- Take Profit 2: 0.3200
Alternative scenario:
If the level of 0.4500 is broken-out, follow the recommendations below:
- Time frame: D1
- Recommendation: long position
- Entry point: 0.4500
- Take profit 1: 0.4800
- Take profit 2: 0.5000
