XAU/USD Forecast Fundamental Analysis | XAU/USD Ounce / US Dollar

XAU/USD Forecast Fundamental Analysis | XAU/USD Ounce / US Dollar

Written by: PaxForex analytics dept - Friday, 25 November 2022 0 comments

Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight

New Zealand Retail Sales for the third quarter rose 0.4% quarterly and 4.9% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to New Zealand Retail Sales for the second quarter, which contracted 2.3% quarterly and 3.7% annualized.

Foreign Buying of Japanese Bonds for the period ending November 19th came in at -¥526.6B, and Foreigners Buying of Japanese Stocks at ¥4.5B. Forex traders can compare this to the Foreign Buying of Japanese Bonds for the period ending November 12th, reported at -¥120.5B, and to Foreigners Buying of Japanese Stocks at ¥553.3B.

Singapore Industrial Production for October increased by 0.9% monthly and decreased by 0.8% annualized. Economists predicted a contraction of 0.3% and 0.9%. Forex traders can compare this to Singapore Industrial Production for September, which rose 0.2% monthly and 1.6% annualized.

The Final German GDP for the third quarter increased by 0.4% quarterly and 1.2% annualized. Economists predicted a rise of 0.3% and 1.1% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the second quarter German GDP, which rose 0.1% quarterly and 1.7% annualized.

The German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for December came in at -40.2. Economists predicted a figure of -39.6. Forex traders can compare this to the German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for November, reported at -41.9.

French Consumer Confidence for November is predicted at 83. Forex traders can compare this to French Consumer Confidence for October, reported at 82.

Italian Business Confidence for November is predicted at 99.6, and Italian Consumer Confidence is predicted at 91.0. Forex traders can compare this to Italian Business Confidence for October, reported at 100.4, and Italian Consumer Confidence at 90.1.

Gold has regained its bullish stance driven by its inflation stance after the US Federal Reserve announced smaller interest rate increases moving forward. The move was anticipated by markets, but confirmation was necessary to offer a bullish catalyst. It allows traders to focus on underlying economic issues and stagflationary conditions, which are likely to depress the US Dollar while providing upside momentum for gold, a double bullish catalyst for this precious metal and safe-haven asset.

The forecast for the XAU/USD remains bullish after this currency pair completed its breakout above its ascending Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud. Volatility could increase as short-term upside momentum stalled with the Kijun-sen and the Tenkan-sen flat, but the longer-term uptrend is intact. Traders should monitor the CCI following its breakdown from extreme overbought territory. This technical indicator remained above zero and has plenty of upside potential. Can bulls keep their control over price action and push the XAY/USD into its horizontal resistance area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.

Should price action for XAU/USD remain inside the or breakout above the 1,740.00 to 1,767.60 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:

  • Timeframe: D1
  • Recommendation: Long Position
  • Entry Level: Long Position @ 1,755.00
  • Take Profit Zone: 1,857.00 – 1,878.80
  • Stop Loss Level: 1,700.00

Should price action for XAU/USD breakdown below 1,740.00, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:

  • Timeframe: D1
  • Recommendation: Short Position
  • Entry Level: Short Position @ 1,700.00
  • Take Profit Zone: 1,616.55 – 1,651.30
  • Stop Loss Level: 1,740.00

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