What to expect from the US labor market?
What to expect from the US labor market?
Written by: PaxForex analytics dept - Thursday, 01 August 2019 0 comments
This Friday, traders will again focus on the release of labor statistics from the United States. NonFarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, and Unemployment Rate will determine the future behavior of the US currency.
NonFarm Payrolls
Last data: 224K
Consensus forecast: 165K
The current week has been eventful. In the first half of the week, the next round of trade negotiations between the USA and China started in Beijing, the very fact of which has already supported the American dollar. On Wednesday, the results of the two-day Fed meeting were published, as a result of which the American regulator lowered the rate by 25 basis points, as expected while avoiding harsh statements and thereby supporting the national currency.
And as the final point of this trading week, on Friday will be presented the main report on the US labor market. We assume that the number of new jobs will be about 165K, which is certainly lower than the previous figure of 224K. However, taking into account the more or less stable dynamics of this indicator, the US dollar is unlikely to be under pressure, even if this forecast will not be justified.
If the forecast is justified or the numbers exceed it, then traders should expect a moderate increase in USD relative to its main competitors.
Average Hourly Earnings
Last data: 0.2%
Consensus forecast: 0.2%
The average hourly earnings growth rate is likely to remain at the same, and quite a good level of 0.2%. Having reached this, the indicator feels quite comfortable considering the cumulative impact on it of good numbers on NFP and the low unemployment rate in the country.
If this forecast is justified, it will help strengthen the US dollar.
Unemployment Rate
Last data: 3.7%
Consensus forecast: 3.6%
In his speech this week, US President Donald Trump stated that the national economy is in a prosperous state, and the present time can be called historically the most favorable for young Americans in terms of employment.
In general, the unemployment rate in the United States is confidently moving to the lowest level in the last 50 years, and the growth of the national economy is the longest in the entire history of observations.
It is difficult to disagree with the American leader, especially considering the fact that the unemployment rate in the country can again fall to record levels of 3.6%.
If this forecast is justified, it can lead to a significant strengthening of the US currency.
NonFarm Payrolls
Last data: 224K
Consensus forecast: 165K
The current week has been eventful. In the first half of the week, the next round of trade negotiations between the USA and China started in Beijing, the very fact of which has already supported the American dollar. On Wednesday, the results of the two-day Fed meeting were published, as a result of which the American regulator lowered the rate by 25 basis points, as expected while avoiding harsh statements and thereby supporting the national currency.
And as the final point of this trading week, on Friday will be presented the main report on the US labor market. We assume that the number of new jobs will be about 165K, which is certainly lower than the previous figure of 224K. However, taking into account the more or less stable dynamics of this indicator, the US dollar is unlikely to be under pressure, even if this forecast will not be justified.
If the forecast is justified or the numbers exceed it, then traders should expect a moderate increase in USD relative to its main competitors.
Average Hourly Earnings
Last data: 0.2%
Consensus forecast: 0.2%
The average hourly earnings growth rate is likely to remain at the same, and quite a good level of 0.2%. Having reached this, the indicator feels quite comfortable considering the cumulative impact on it of good numbers on NFP and the low unemployment rate in the country.
If this forecast is justified, it will help strengthen the US dollar.
Unemployment Rate
Last data: 3.7%
Consensus forecast: 3.6%
In his speech this week, US President Donald Trump stated that the national economy is in a prosperous state, and the present time can be called historically the most favorable for young Americans in terms of employment.
In general, the unemployment rate in the United States is confidently moving to the lowest level in the last 50 years, and the growth of the national economy is the longest in the entire history of observations.
It is difficult to disagree with the American leader, especially considering the fact that the unemployment rate in the country can again fall to record levels of 3.6%.
If this forecast is justified, it can lead to a significant strengthening of the US currency.