Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight

US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of January 21st are predicted at 205K, and US Continuing Claims for the week of January 14th at 1,659K. Forex traders can compare this to US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of January 14th, reported at 190K, and US Continuing Claims for the week of January 7th, reported at 1,647K.

US Preliminary Durable Goods Orders for December are predicted to increase by 2.5% monthly, and Durables Excluding Transportation to decrease by 0.2% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Durable Goods Orders for November, which dropped 2.1% monthly, and Durables Excluding Transportation, which rose 0.2% monthly. Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft for December are predicted to contract by 0.2% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft for November, which increased by 0.2% monthly.

The Advanced US GDP for the fourth quarter is predicted to increase by 2.6% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the third quarter GDP, which rose 3.2% annualized. The GDP Price Index for the fourth quarter is predicted to rise 3.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the third quarter GDP Price Index, which rose 4.4% annualized. The Core PCE for the fourth quarter is predicted to expand by 4.0% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the third quarter Core PCE, which increased by 4.7% annualized.

US New Home Sales for December are predicted to plunge by 4.7% monthly to 617K new homes. Forex traders can compare this to US New Home Sales for November, which surged by 5.8% monthly to 640K new homes.

US Preliminary Wholesale Trade Sales for December are predicted to increase by 0.5% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Wholesale Trade Sales for November, which rose 1.0% monthly.

US Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending January 20th are predicted at -82B cubic feet. Traders can compare this to US Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending January 13th, reported at -82B cubic feet.

The South African PPI for December is predicted to increase by 0.4% monthly and 14.1% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the South African PPI for November, which rose 0.5% monthly and 15.0% annualized.

The South African Reserve Bank is expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points from 7.00% to 7.50%. Forex traders can compare this to the previous South African Reserve Bank meeting, where it raised interest rates by 75 basis points from 6.25% to 7.00%. The interest rate tightening policy began in November 2021 when interest rates stood at 3.50%. Forex traders should pay attention to comments about future monetary policy to assess if the South African central bank is nearing the end of its tightening cycle.

The forecast for the USD/ZAR remains bearish, with the descending Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud applying downside pressure, enforced by a horizontal resistance area. A pending bearish crossover between the downward-drifting Kijun-sen and the upward-sliding Tenkan-sen could increase volatility and selling pressure for this currency pair. Traders should also monitor the CCI following its breakdown from extreme overbought territory. A contraction below zero could accelerate a sell-off, as this technical indicator has plenty of downside potential. Can bears maintain downside pressure on the USD/ZAR and force price action into its horizontal support area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.

Should price action for the USD/ZAR remain inside the or breakdown below the 16.9495 to 17.3040 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:

• Timeframe: D1           
• Recommendation: Short Position
• Entry Level: Short Position @ 17.0910
• Take Profit Zone: 15.8345 – 16.1020
• Stop Loss Level: 17.7500

Should price action for the USD/ZAR breakout above 17.3040, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:

• Timeframe: D1           
• Recommendation: Long Position
• Entry Level: Long Position @ 17.7500
• Take Profit Zone: 17.9500 – 18.1250
• Stop Loss Level: 17.3040

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