Here is the key factor to keep in mind today for Canadian Dollar trades:

• Canadian Employment Report: Economists expect the Canadian economy lost 5,000 jobs in February and that the unemployment rate increased by 0.1% to 6.7%. While this may look as a big disappointment, job losses are never good for an economy, if it is added together with January’s strong report which showed an increase of 35,400 jobs and an unemployment rate of 6.6% it averages out to a strong start for the Canadian labor market in 2015. Job losses from the temporary sector are even less of a bearish case and if the Canadian economy managed to add full-time positions in February the Canadian Dollar may be in for a rally to close out this trading week. The labor force participation rate likely remained unchanged at 65.7.

Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for US Dollar trades:

• US PPI: The PPI is expected to show an increase of 0.3% February monthly and an annualized level of 0.0%. Forex traders can compare this with January’s contraction of 0.8% and 0.0%. The core PPI, which is the PPI excluding food and energy, is expected to rise by only 0.1% in February monthly and by 1.6% annualized. This compares to January’s contraction of 0.1% and increase of 1.6%. The PPI excluding food, energy and trade is expected to increase by 0.1% in February monthly and by 0.8% annualized. Forex traders can compare this with January’s contraction of 0.3% and increase of 0.9%. The US Dollar may finish the week on a softer tone.
• University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index: Economists expect the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index to increase by 0.3 point to 95.7 in March from February’s 95.4. Forex traders should be careful with the expectations after yesterday’s plunge in advanced retail sales suggest that consumer are not confident at all.

Should price action for the USDCAD remain inside, or breakdown below, the 1.2700 to 1.2775 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:

• Timeframe: H4
• Recommendation: Short Position
• Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.2725
• Take Profit Zone: 1.2400 – 1.2450
• Stop Loss Level: 1.2800

Should price action for the USDCAD breakout above 1.2775 the following trade set-up is recommended:

• Timeframe: H4
• Recommendation: Long Position
• Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.2825
• Take Profit Zone: 1.2950 – 1.3000
• Stop Loss Level: 1.2775

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