Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight

The US NFP Report for July is predicted to show 250K job additions and an unemployment rate of 3.6%. Forex traders can compare this to the US NFP Report for June, which showed 372K job additions and an unemployment rate of 3.6%. Private Payrolls for July are predicted to show 230K job additions and Manufacturing Payrolls 17K job additions. Forex traders can compare this to Private Payrolls for June, which showed 381K job additions, and Manufacturing Payrolls, which showed 29K job additions. The Average Work Week for July is predicted at 34.5 hours. Forex traders can compare this to the Average Work Week for June, reported at 34.5 hours. Average Hourly Earnings for July are predicted to increase 0.3% monthly and 4.9% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to Average Hourly Earnings for June, which rose 0.3% monthly and 5.1% annualized.

US Consumer Credit for June is predicted at $25.00B. Forex traders can compare this to US Consumer Credit for May, reported at $22.35B.

The Canadian Employment Report for July is predicted to show the addition of 20.0K jobs and an Unemployment Rate of 5.0%. Forex traders can compare this to the Canadian Employment Report for June, which showed the loss of 43.2K jobs and an Unemployment Rate of 4.9%. The Participation Rate for July is predicted at 65.3%. Forex traders can compare this to the Participation Rate for June, reported at 64.9%.

The Canadian Ivey PMI for July is predicted at 60.3. Forex traders can compare this to the Canadian Ivey PMI for June, reported at 62.2.

The forecast for the USD/CAD remains bearish after this currency pair retreated from a price spike and formed an imperfect head-and-shoulders pattern. Adding to downside pressure is the descending Tenkan-sen, and the Kijun-sen flatlined, confirming the lack of short-term bullishness. The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud shows early signs of bearishness, as the Senkou Span A drifts lower with a flat Senkou Span B. Volatility is likely to increase ahead of the NFP report, which could clock in below expectations given the rise in initial jobless claims. Traders should monitor the CCI following its breakout from extreme oversold territory. It is likely to form a third lower high near 100 before accelerating to the downside. Can bears overcome bulls and force the USD/CAD into its horizontal support area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.

Should price action for the USD/CAD remain inside the or breakdown below the 1.2815 to 1.2910 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:

• Time frame: D1
• Recommendation: Short position
• Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.2865
• Take Profit Zone: 1.2520 – 1.2605
• Stop Loss Level: 1.2995

Alternative scenario: 

Should price action for the USD/CAD breakout above 1.2910, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:

• Time frame: D1
• Recommendation: Long Position
• Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.2995
• Take Profit Zone: 1.3135 – 1.3220
• Stop Loss Level: 1.2910

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