USD and U.S. bond slow down on Monday

USD and U.S. bond slow down on Monday

Written by: PaxForex analytics dept - Monday, 28 November 2016 0 comments

The dollar and U.S. bond yields fell on Monday as investors reversed a "Trumpflation" trade that has gripped markets since the U.S. elections, after oil prices slid on fears that producer countries meeting this week could fail to agree an output cut.

Brent crude futures last traded at $47.13 per barrel LCOc1, down slightly on the day, after having fallen by as much as 2.0 percent in early Asian trade, following on from a 3.6 percent fall on Friday as doubts arose over whether the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would reach a deal later this week.

Prospects of reduced upward pressure on inflation from oil prices, prompted investors to temper expectations for rises in U.S. interest rates, bring down treasury yields and the dollar.

That gave some relief to Asian shares, which had underperformed on worries about capital flight to higher-yielding U.S markets in the weeks since Donald Trump's Nov.8 election win.

In contrast, U.S. stock futures slipped 0.2 percent after their stellar performance this month on hopes President-elect Trump's policy of fiscal spending, deregulation and protection of domestic industries will boost U.S. inflation and benefit corporate America.

Some investors question whether the market may have got carried away with optimism on Trump's policy, given the uncertainty on the political neophyte's presidency, including on how closely he can work together with the Congress.

But languishing oil prices, giving investors a more immediate reason to have second thoughts about how prospects for inflation and U.S. interest rates.

Saudi Arabia said on Friday it will not attend talks on Monday with non-OPEC producers to discuss supply cuts.

Saudi Arabia's energy minister Khalid al-Falih said on Sunday that he believed the oil market would balance itself in 2017 even if producers did not intervene, and that keeping output at current levels could therefore be justified.

His comments raised worries that a preliminary agreement reached in September for OPEC to reduce output to between 32.5 million and 33 million barrels per day may fall apart when OPEC ministers meet on Wednesday to finalize that deal.

USD sank more than 1.6 percent against the yen to as low as 111.355 yen, down sharply from its eight-month high of 113.90 set just on Friday. It last traded at 111.90 yen.

EUR gained 0.8 percent to $1.0655, extending its rebound from its near one-year low of $1.0518 touched on Thursday.

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries dropped almost 5 basis points to 2.323 percent, off its 16-month high of 2.417 percent touched on Thursday. On the other hand, some commodities gained sharply on hopes of strong demand for property and infrastructure investment in China and the United States.