Procter & Gamble | Fundamental Analysis

Procter & Gamble | Fundamental Analysis

Written by: PaxForex analytics dept - Tuesday, 19 January 2021 0 comments

Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight

Stock investors looking for incredible growth stocks likely won't find it in Procter & Gamble. Even at the best of times, consumers drive growth at a single-digit pace. Investors won't be thrilled, either. P&G stock is now consistently valued at more than 20 times its projected earnings. It's not even the best choice for dividends among its peers; Unilever boasts big dividend payouts.
Nonetheless, Procter & Gamble is a solid buy for investors who want to bring some stability and reliability to their portfolio. Not only is the company not a giant that won't be pushed around by competitors, but P&G has finally and fully realized the potential of the Internet as a marketing tool. And now it is doing something about it.

Those who follow P&G closely may question the company's place in the online world. Its plans to acquire Billie, an online seller of women's shaving products, were dropped earlier this month after the Federal Trade Commission formally protested the deal in December.

While this is hardly a death blow for the company, it is certainly a setback for an organization with deep roots in the brick store world. P&G's product lines include Pampers diapers, Tide laundry detergent, and Bounty paper towels, to name a few. Moving any of Procter's $70 billion in annual revenue from offline to online is no easy task. Indeed, some may think it's impossible, outside of acquisitions that the FTC is apparently willing to block.

If you don't think Procter & Gamble is ready for the next era of consumerism, think again. Between 11% and 12% of the company's revenue for the quarter ending in October came from e-commerce. That's up from about 6% of P&G's top line a couple of years ago. It's still not enough to call it an e-commerce powerhouse, but Procter is clearly moving in the right direction.
And there's a good reason why Procter has been able to quietly cultivate this digital presence -- relatively new CEO David Taylor has steered the company in that direction.

After completing the streamlining (through divestitures) enacted by his predecessor, Alan Lafley, Taylor shifted his focus to online in 2017. That's where P&G's most troubling competition was coming from. Yes, that includes high-end brands like Dollar Shave Club and Harry's. According to Euromonitor, they were a key reason that P&G's Gillette brand of razors shrunk from 70% of the U.S. market to less than 50% of that market by 2017.

But it wasn't just Procter & Gamble's loss of share of the shaving market. The explosion of direct shopping has led to niche brands of detergents, skincare products, and more for consumers who previously limited their searches to what they found on the shelves of nearby stores. This paradigm shift in the marketplace is a key reason P&G Ventures developed Meladerm skincare brand and Zevo bug spray, and in 2017 acquired Native, an online-only natural deodorant brand.

But Taylor and company aren't just buying and making their way into the e-commerce arena. The company is surprisingly sophisticated in its measured approach. In 2019, Taylor first began using the term "smart audience" as a way to describe the use of digital consumer data as a means to refine its marketing message. The company has 350 different data segments, defined by more than 1 billion people. That's a lot of different ways to craft a marketing message, and P&G charges that data by analyzing it using Alphabet's Google Cloud artificial intelligence tools.
It doesn't take long to read between the lines to realize that this consumer goods player is also a powerful technology company.

Consumers-even loyal Procter & Gamble customers-will find it hard to point to the specific changes the company has made in its desire to modernize. That's the point. In the same vein, investors may find it difficult to identify specific strategic elements that will make P&G more ready for a digital-based future. The company we know and love today is very similar to the Procter & Gamble we knew and loved 20 years ago, raising questions about its relevance. As a result, it would be easy to assume that the huge and old organization remains on the defensive - something that holds up the bull argument.

Take a good look in-depth, and you'll see that this is not the P&G of yore. It has evolved, even if it hasn't touched that development. 
That doesn't necessarily mean that investors should expect double-digit percentage growth in sales and earnings in the future. That would still be wonderful. But it at least lays the groundwork for potential earnings and revenue surprises for the foreseeable future. It also makes Procter & Gamble the name that reliability-oriented investors saw in the company a couple of decades ago

While the price is below 140.00, follow the recommendations below:

  • Time frame: D1
  • Recommendation: short position
  • Entry point: 134.00
  • Take Profit 1: 134.10
  • Take Profit 2: 132.70

Alternative scenario:

If the level 140.00 is broken-out, follow the recommendations below:

  • Time frame: D1
  • Recommendation: long position
  • Entry point: 140.00
  • Take Profit 1: 142.50
  • Take Profit 2: 144.00