Procter & Gamble | Fundamental Analysis

Procter & Gamble | Fundamental Analysis

Written by: PaxForex analytics dept - Thursday, 18 April 2024 0 comments

Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight

Annually in April, there's a familiar event that never fails to excite investors: the unveiling of Procter & Gamble's latest dividend. This consumer staples behemoth boasts an unparalleled track record, having increased its dividends for an astonishing 67 consecutive years, a streak unmatched in the market. P&G's dividend legacy traces back to its inception in the 1890s.

What sets this year apart is the generosity of the dividend hike announced by management for 2024, surpassing expectations set by previous years. This increase is just one facet of a robust capital return strategy, which also includes significant investments in stock buybacks. Now, let's delve into the implications of P&G's enhanced payout and whether it enhances the attractiveness of its shares in today's market.

Despite P&G's recent underwhelming performance in terms of growth, with sales volumes dipping into negative territory over the past year, there are promising indicators. While organic growth softened to 5% in fiscal Q2 from the prior quarter's 7%, the company remains resilient. However, the prevailing expectation among investors is for continued challenges ahead, with anticipated sales growth for the full 2024 year likely falling below the 5% mark.

Several headwinds loom on the horizon, potentially constraining revenue growth in the coming quarters. Consumer spending patterns are reverting to pre-pandemic norms, while moderating inflation rates diminish the boost previously provided by higher prices. Additionally, P&G faces competitive struggles, particularly with its Gillette shaving brand.

Nonetheless, there are bright spots amidst the challenges. P&G continues to outpace competitors like Kimberly Clark, indicating robust market share retention despite a demanding sales environment. Moreover, the company's earnings outlook remains favorable, with projected improvements in profit margins and accelerated earnings growth anticipated for fiscal 2024. These positive developments underpin management's confidence in raising the dividend at this juncture.

The upcoming dividend, set to be distributed to investors in late April, sees a significant increase to over $1 per share, marking a robust 7% uptick from the previous payment. This stands in stark contrast to the 3% raise seen in 2023, highlighting the company's commitment to rewarding its shareholders.

Procter & Gamble's ability to bolster its dividend reflects its healthy financial position, with profit margins steadily climbing back towards the peak of 24% of sales observed during the pandemic. With almost all earnings being converted into free cash flow, the company has ample room to allocate resources towards both dividend payments and stock buybacks, with an anticipated expenditure of $15 billion in these areas throughout 2024.

Currently, P&G's new dividend yields around 2.4% based on prevailing stock prices, representing a notable premium compared to the approximately 1.4% yield offered by an S&P 500 index fund. However, within the consumer staples sector, alternative opportunities for higher yields exist, with competitors like Kimberly Clark boasting a nearly 4% yield.

Despite its attractive dividend and strong financials, P&G's valuation commands a significant premium, trading at nearly 5 times sales, more than double that of Kimberly Clark. Consequently, the stock may appear pricey, prompting income-oriented investors to exercise caution and consider waiting for a potential market downturn to secure a more favorable entry point into this esteemed consumer staples giant.

As long as the price is above 155.00, follow the recommendations below

  • Time frame: D1
  • Recommendation: long position
  • Entry point: 156.66
  • Take Profit 1: 163.00
  • Take Profit 2: 168.00

Alternative scenario:

If the level of 155.00 is broken-down, follow the recommendations below:

  • Time frame: D1
  • Recommendation: short position
  • Entry point: 155.00
  • Take Profit 1: 152.00
  • Take Profit 2: 148.00