Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for New Zealand Dollar trades:

• New Zealand Trade Balance: The New Zealand economy managed to produce a much larger trade surplus in March than the NZ$300 million expected by economists. The trade surplus rose to NZ$631 million in March which forex traders can compare to the upward revised trade surplus of NZ$83 million reported in February.
• New Zealand NBNZ Business Confidence Index: Corporate New Zealand grew less confident in April as compared to March. The NBNZ Business Confidence Index for April was reported at 30.2 which compares to the 35.8 reported for the NBNZ Business Confidence Index in March. This is a bearish fundamental trading signal for the New Zealand Dollar.
• New Zealand ANZ Activity Outlook: Another bearish signal was delivered by the New Zealand ANZ Activity Outlook which decreased to 41.3 in April from the 42.2 reported in March. There have been mixed reports out of the New Zealand economy over the past few trading weeks.

Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for US Dollar trades:

• US GDP: Forex traders will receive a very important economic report today with the release of the first-quarter GDP which is expected to show a quarterly increase of 0.5% and an annualized increase of 1.0%. This can be compared to the previous GDP report which showed a quarterly increase of 0.1% and an annualized increase of 2.2%. Personal consumption is expected to drop to 1.7% from 4.4%. Overall today’s GDP report could send the US currency pair tumbling especially if the annualized GDP figure comes in below 1.0%.
• US Pending Home Sales: Pending home sales are expected to slow down sharply to 5.1% in March annualized. This is less than half the 12.0% annualized increase reported in February. The housing sector plays a key role in the US economy and a slowdown there will impact the GDP data.
• FOMC Announcement: The FOMC is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 0.25% and given the overall economic slowdown in the US the likelihood of a rate hike this year seems to be fading away. Any suggestion that a rate increase is off the table for 2015 will be met by heavy selling in the US Dollar, but such an announcement is highly unlikely during the first-half of this year.

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