Johnson & Johnson | Fundamental Analysis

Johnson & Johnson | Fundamental Analysis

Written by: PaxForex analytics dept - Wednesday, 14 April 2021 0 comments

Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight

Johnson & Johnson is the perfect example of value stocks: five years of uninterrupted annual revenue growth, an above-average dividend that has risen for 58 consecutive years, and a diversified product portfolio that can withstand various lawsuits, pandemics, and anything else that gets in the company's way.

The company also has something many people need: the single-dose COVID-19 vaccine. Many people have been waiting to get vaccinated just to get the J&J vaccine. In late February, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) gave the company emergency approval for the vaccine. It came two months after it authorized to use two doses of the vaccine from Pfizer and Moderna. And last month, the U.S. ordered an additional 100 million doses of J&J. In 2020, they ordered the first 100 million doses.

However, that successful pace came to a halt this week. The FDA and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended a pause in the introduction of the J&J vaccine after some people developed "rare and severe" blood clots. Investors may now wonder what it means for J&J's future in the vaccine sector - and what the company's stock price is. Let's try to figure it out.

First, we have to put things in perspective. So far, J&J has vaccinated more than 6.8 million people in the United States. Six cases of blood clots have been reported. So it remains an exceptionally rare case. The FDA recommends stopping "as a precaution."

The CDC will meet today with an advisory committee on immunization practices to study the cases. And the FDA is also investigating. The agencies are recommending that vaccinations be stopped until their review is complete.

The people who had blood clots were women between the ages of 18 and 48. Symptoms appeared 6 to 13 days after vaccination. Blood clots -- thrombosis of the cerebral venous sinuses -- are the type usually treated with the anticoagulant drug heparin. But health officials say heparin can be dangerous in these cases -- which means another treatment must be used.

It's impossible to predict the outcome of an examination. But we can use clues to suggest possible scenarios.

Given that there is still a pattern - women of a certain age group - agencies may allow vaccination to resume in those who are not in that group. It is also possible that agencies will learn why clotting has occurred and how to prevent it in the future. In that case, vaccination could be resumed for anyone who is 18 years of age or older.

It's also possible that experts won't know exactly why these incidents occurred. But because they are rare, agencies may allow vaccination to resume in all groups -- as long as health care providers have a clotting plan in place.

The Food and Drug Administration has stressed the idea of practitioner awareness. The agency said that pausing vaccination is important "to ensure that the health care community is aware of the potential for these adverse events and can plan for appropriate recognition and treatment."

So investors are optimistic because it's all about developing the best plan to use the vaccine, not taking it off the market.

Now investors may wonder what this pause means for J&J's earnings. The answer is extremely simple: nothing. The company has committed to sell its vaccine without making a profit during a pandemic. It means that any drop in vaccine use or sales will not hurt profits.

J&J can raise the price of its vaccine after the pandemic is over, in which case revenues from sales or reductions in them will increase or decrease profits. But even at that point, investors should not expect huge consequences. The company's wide range of products means that it does not rely on just one of them to increase revenue or grow sales. For example, revenue for the full year 2020 was more than $82 billion. And the company's products cover such categories as consumer health, pharmaceuticals, and medical devices.

What about the stock price? The stock could fall in the short term because of this vaccine pause. But experts don't think any decline will last very long. Pharmaceutical stocks are not as sensitive to news about vaccines as are biotech stocks. Again, that's because they don't depend on a single product. 

Johnson & Johnson is designed for the long term and is ideal for long-term investors. You won't see the company's profits or stock price skyrocket, but you won't see it crash either. It explains why J&J is a good stock to buy almost any month. However, the last year has kept the company's stock price in check, so April is a good time to buy them.

While the price is below 162.00, follow the recommendations below:

  • Time frame: D1
  • Recommendation: short position
  • Entry point: 158.00
  • Take Profit 1: 152.10
  • Take Profit 2: 149.60

Alternative scenario: 

In case of breakout of the level 162.00, follow the recommendations below:

  • Time frame: D1
  • Recommendation: long position
  • Entry point: 162.00
  • Take Profit 1: 166.20
  • Take Profit 2: 168.60