EUR/USD Forecast Fundamental Analysis | Euro / US Dollar

EUR/USD Forecast Fundamental Analysis | Euro / US Dollar

Written by: PaxForex analytics dept - Friday, 13 May 2022 0 comments

Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight

The Final French CPI for April is predicted to rise 0.4% monthly and 4.8% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the French CPI for March, which increased 1.4% monthly and 4.5% annualized. The Final French Harmonized CPI for April is predicted to expand 0.5% monthly and increase 5.4% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the French Harmonized CPI for March, which rose 1.6% monthly and 5.1% annualized.

The Final Spanish CPI for April is predicted to decrease 0.1% monthly and increase by 8.4% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Spanish CPI for March, which surged 3.0% monthly and 9.8% annualized. The Final Spanish Harmonized Spanish CPI for April is predicted to drop 0.2% monthly and expand 8.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Spanish Harmonized Spanish CPI for March, which rose 3.9% monthly and 9.8% annualized.

Eurozone Industrial Production for March is predicted to decrease 2.0% monthly and 1.0% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to Eurozone Industrial Production for February, which rose 0.7% monthly and 2.0% annualized.

The US Import Price Index for April is predicted to increase by 0.6% monthly, and the US Export Price Index by 0.7% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to the US Import Price Index for March, which rose by 2.6% monthly, and the US Export Price Index by 4.5% monthly.

Preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment for May is predicted at 64.0. Forex traders can compare this to US Michigan Consumer Confidence for April, reported at 65.2. Preliminary Current Conditions for May are expected at 70.5, and Preliminary Expectations at 63.0. Forex traders can compare this to Current Conditions for April, reported at 69.4, and Expectations reported at 62.5.

The forecast for the EUR/USD is cautiously bullish following a massive sell-off that took this currency pair into a key horizontal support area. Confirming the lack of short-term bearish pressures are the Kijun-sen and the Tenkan-sen, which both flatlined. The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud turned sideways, offering bulls a chance at a counter-trend rally. Traders should monitor the CCI after forming a minor positive divergence in extreme oversold territory. A breakout above -100 could trigger a short-covering rally. Can bulls mount a comeback and push the EUR/USD into its horizontal resistance area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.

Should price action for the EUR/USD remain inside the or breakout above the 1.0350 to 1.0470 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:

  • Timeframe: D1           
  • Recommendation: Long Position
  • Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.0400
  • Take Profit Zone: 1.1765 – 1.1865
  • Stop Loss Level: 1.0300

Should price action for the EUR/USD breakdown below 1.0350, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:

  • Timeframe: D1           
  • Recommendation: Short Position
  • Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.0300
  • Take Profit Zone: 1.0165 – 1.0200
  • Stop Loss Level: 1.0350

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