Forex traders will get a light economic calendar today as the US is closed for trading due to the July 4th Independence Day holiday. Given the overall global economic slowdown, most analysts now predict that the US central bank will cut interest rates as soon as this month. As Trump continues to rage with his trade and tariff wars, the EU and Vietnam are next on his list as both signed a new trade deal this Sunday which was the first one the EU entered into with an emerging economy. Eurozone retail sales will be in focus today and could dictate price action for the entire trading session. Will Euro bulls get a surprise which will allow them to march on after leaders agreed to nominate candidates for the top EU positions? Today’s fundamental analysis will take a look at the upside as well as downside of the EURCHF currency pair.

Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Euro trades:

• German Markit Construction PMI: The German Markit Construction PMI for June is predicted at 50.9. Forex traders can compare this to the German Markit Construction PMI for May which was reported at 51.4.
• Eurozone Retail Sales: Eurozone Retail Sales for May are predicted to increase by 0.4% monthly and by 1.6% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to Eurozone Retail Sales for April which decreased by 0.4% monthly and which increased by 1.5% annualized.

The Swiss Franc has enjoyed a strong rally as global trade uncertainty pushed demand into safe haven assets. The announced trade truce between the US and China could give forex traders a reason to book floating trading profits which will send the EURCHF into a temporary reversal. The faltering relationship between the EU and Switzerland could further apply selling pressure on the Swiss Franc. How will today’s CPI data impact price action? Do you know how to trade forex and earn a consistent monthly income? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and allow our expert analysts to guide to over 500 pips in monthly profits!

Here is the key factor to keep in mind today for Swiss Franc trades:

• Swiss CPI: The Swiss CPI for June is predicted to decrease by 0.1% monthly and to increase by 0.5% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Swiss CPI for May which increased by 0.3% monthly and by 0.6% annualized. The Swiss Core CPI for June is predicted to increase by 0.6% annualized. Forex traders can compare this this to the Swiss Core CPI for May which increased by 0.6% annualized. The Swiss EU Harmonized CPI for June is predicted to decrease by 0.2% monthly and to increase by 0.4% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Swiss EU Harmonized CPI for May which decreased by 0.2% monthly and which increased by 0.5% annualized.

Should price action for the EURCHF remain inside the or breakout above the 1.1105 to 1.1145 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:

• Timeframe: D1
• Recommendation: Long Position
• Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.1130
• Take Profit Zone: 1.1265 – 1.1300
• Stop Loss Level: 1.1085

Should price action for the EURCHF breakdown below 1.1105 the following trade set-up is recommended:

• Timeframe: D1
• Recommendation: Short Position
• Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.1085
• Take Profit Zone: 1.0920 – 1.0985
• Stop Loss Level: 1.1105

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