AUD/USD Forecast Fundamental Analysis | Australian Dollar / US Dollar

AUD/USD Forecast Fundamental Analysis | Australian Dollar / US Dollar

Written by: PaxForex analytics dept - Thursday, 01 June 2023 0 comments

Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight

The Final Australian Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI for May came in at 48.4. Economists predicted a figure of 48.0. Forex traders can compare this to the Australian Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI for April, reported at 48.0.

Australian Private Capital Expenditure for the first quarter increased by 2.4% quarterly. Economists predicted a rise of 1.3%. Forex traders can compare this to Australian Private Capital Expenditure for the fourth quarter, which accelerated 3.0% quarterly. Australian Building Capital Expenditure for the first quarter increased by 1.3% quarterly, and Australian Plant & Machinery Capital Expenditure by 3.7% quarterly. Economists predicted a rise of 8.4% and a decrease of 0.1%. Forex traders can compare this to Australian Building Capital Expenditure for the fourth quarter, which expanded 3.6% quarterly, and Australian Plant & Machinery Capital Expenditure, which rose 0.6% quarterly.

Australian Final Retail Sales for April came in flat at 0.0% monthly. Economists predicted a flat reading of 0.0% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Australian Retail Sales for March, which increased 0.4% monthly.

The Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI for May came in at 50.9. Economists predicted a figure of 50.3. Forex traders can compare this to the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI for April, reported at 49.5.

The US ADP Employment Change for May is predicted at 170K. Forex traders can compare this to the US ADP Employment Change for April, reported at 296K.

US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of May 27th are predicted at 235K, and US Continuing Claims for the week of May 20th at 1,800K. Forex traders can compare this to US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of May 20th, reported at 229K, and US Continuing Claims for the week of May 13th, reported at 1,794K.

Final US Non-Farm Productivity for the first quarter is predicted to decrease by 2.7% quarterly, and Unit Labor Costs to surge by 6.3% quarterly. Forex traders can compare this to US Non-Farm Productivity for the fourth quarter, which rose by 1.7% quarterly, and Unit Labor Costs, which increased by 3.2% quarterly.

The Final US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for May is predicted at 48.5. Forex traders can compare this to the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for April, reported at 50.2.

US Construction Spending for April is predicted to rise 0.1% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Construction Spending for March, which rose 0.3% monthly.

The US ISM Manufacturing Index for May is predicted at 47.0, and ISM Prices Paid at 52.0. Forex traders can compare this to the US ISM Manufacturing Index for April, reported at 47.1, and ISM Prices Paid at 53.2. ISM Employment Index for May is predicted at 48.5. Forex traders can compare this to ISM Employment Index for April, reported at 50.2. ISM New Orders for May are predicted at 44.9. Forex traders can compare this to ISM New Orders for April, reported at 45.7.

The forecast for the AUD/USD turned cautiously bullish after this currency pair corrected into its horizontal support area. The Ichimoku flatlined following a bullish crossover but is likely to resume a shallow uptrend after the Senkou Span A eclipsed the Senkou Span B. Volatility could rise with the Kijun-sen flat and the Tenkan-sen descending. Traders should also monitor the CCI following its breakout from extreme oversold territory. This technical indicator has more upside potential, and a move above the zero barrier could accelerate the expected reversal. Can bulls regain control over the AUD/USD and push price action into its horizontal resistance area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.

Should price action for the AUD/USD remain inside the or breakout above the 0.6485 to 0.6540 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:

  • Timeframe: D1           
  • Recommendation: Long Position
  • Entry Level: Long Position @ 0.6515
  • Take Profit Zone: 0.6665 – 0.6695
  • Stop Loss Level: 0.6455

Should price action for the AUD/USD breakdown below 0.6485, PaxForex the following trade set-up:

  • Timeframe: D1           
  • Recommendation: Short Position
  • Entry Level: Short Position @ 0.6455
  • Take Profit Zone: 0.6370 – 0.6415
  • Stop Loss Level: 0.6485

Open your PaxForex Trading Account now and add this currency pair to your forex portfolio.