How to Predict Price Movements in the Forex Market in 2020

How to Predict Price Movements in the Forex Market in 2020

Written by: PaxForex analytics dept - Friday, 08 May 2020 0 comments

The basis for earning money from currency trading is understanding how the market works. A trader should know when to place orders for buying and selling currencies. This is done by analyzing the situation and making conclusions about how the trend will behave in the future based on the received data. 
This is a basic skill that a trader should master. No Expert Advisor can act as accurately as a trader. That's why we have prepared a detailed review on how to predict forex market movement, analyze statistics and news.

What is Forex?

Before we move forward, let`s see what Forex is, to explain it for those who are new here, and to make sure we are on the same page. Forex is the name of the international interbank currency market (short for Foreign Exchange Market). 

It is the largest financial market in the world where individuals, companies, and financial institutions exchange currencies at floating rates. Forex market is open 24 hours a day, from Sunday to Friday, and almost three trillion pounds sterling is traded every day.

The volatility of the Forex market depends on the impact of various global factors, which can be divided into two large groups:

  • Economic;

  • Geopolitical.

Economic factors that affect the exchange rate of a certain country:

  • An indicator of economic growth (GDP);

  • Level of inflation and inflationary expectations;

  • Trade balance;

  • Monetary policy of the Central Bank;

  • The unemployment rate, etc.

Any event occurring in the economies of the world's major powers instantly affects the sentiment of the Forex market. Thus, while engaged in currency trading, a trader needs to study and analyze the most important indicators of the world economy, follow the news release about the decisions of central banks regarding their monetary policy. Important economic factors confirm or reverse the trend for a long time, and pullbacks in the opposite direction occur under the influence of less important and unexpected news.
You can find out about the release dates of important news from the economic calendar.

Geopolitical factors affecting the currency rate:

  • Political events;

  • Natural catastrophes;

  • Wars, terrorist attacks, etc.

Important geopolitical events lead to significant currency fluctuations and often cause the reversal of a long-term trend and the formation of a new one. Unlike economic news, the release of which is known in advance, most geopolitical events, such as terrorist attacks, natural disasters, defaults, etc., are unexpected and literally collapse the currency market, causing the rise or fall of currency rates. At the same time, the effect of such news releases quickly loses its strength, and, as a rule, the new trend does not last long. In such cases, traders open positions for a short time, waiting for the subsequent market pullback.

The Forex market is dependent on many interrelated factors that reflect the state of the economy of different countries. Knowledge of these factors allows a trader to quickly navigate and make the right decisions at the right time, as well as assess the time and strength of the influence of fundamental factors on the market trend.